The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garin, Julio; Pries, Michael J.; Sims, Eric R.
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140089
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 119-148
• 关键词: business-cycle; cyclical unemployment; indivisible labor; equilibrium; workers; search; shifts

摘要

A principal components decomposition of sectoral IP data reveals that the contribution of aggregate shocks to the variance of aggregate output declined from about 70 percent in the period 1967-1983 to about 30 percent after 1983. We develop an islands model with two sectors and costly labor reallocation to investigate how this change in the relative importance of shocks alters business cycle moments. A version of the model with relatively more important sectoral shocks results in a sizeable decline in the cyclicality of labor productivity and is consistent with changes in several other business cycle moments observed in the data.