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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Vollrath, Dietrich
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：Today, the world's fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the killer cities of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and co...
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作者：Caicedo, Santiago; Lucas, Robert E., Jr.; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：University of Chicago; Princeton University
摘要：We develop a theory of career paths and earnings where agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these hierarchies as they learn stochastically from others. Earnings grow as agents acquire knowledge and occupy positions with more subordinates. We contrast these and other implications with US census data for the period 1990 to 2010, matching the Lorenz curve of earnings and the observed mean experience-earnings profiles. We show the increase in wage inequality over this period can...
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作者：Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Mehrotra, Neil R.; Robbins, Jacob A.
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from - 1.5 percent to - 2 percent, implying an elevated ...
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作者：Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel; Lale, Etienne
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We document that fluctuations in part-time employment play a major role in movements in hours per worker during cyclical swings in the labor market. Building on this result, we develop a stock-flow framework to describe the dynamics of part-time employment. The evolution of part-time employment is predominantly explained by cyclical changes in transitions between full-time and part-time employment. Those transitions occur overwhelmingly at the same employer, entail sizable changes in individua...
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作者：Baley, Isaac; Blanco, Andres
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We develop a framework to study the impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty on aggregate economic outcomes. Agents learn about individual characteristics, which receive infrequent, large, and persistent shocks. In this environment, idiosyncratic uncertainty moves in cycles, fluctuating between periods of high and low uncertainty; with additional fixed adjustment costs, the frequency and size of agents' actions also fluctuate in cycles. We apply our framework to study pricing behavior and the propa...
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作者：Caldara, Dario; Herbst, Edward
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that during the Great Moderation period, monetary policy shocks induce a persistent decline in real activity and tightening in financial conditions. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in corporate credit spreads. The failure to account for this e...
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作者：Ferriere, Axelle; Karantounias, Anastasios G.
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that without ambiguity, optimal surplus-to-output ratios are acyclical and that there is no rationale for either reduction or further accumulation of public debt. In contrast, ambiguity about the cycle can generate optimally policies that resemble austerity measures. Optimal policy prescribes higher taxes in adverse times and front-loaded fiscal consolidations that lead to a balanced p...
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作者：Fratzscher, Marcel; Gloede, Oliver; Menkhoff, Lukas; Sarno, Lucio; Stoehr, Tobias
作者单位：Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Swiss National Bank (SNB); City St Georges, University of London; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, ...
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作者：Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias
作者单位：University of London; Birkbeck University London; Banco de Espana
摘要：We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of popul...
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作者：Blum, Bernardo S.; Claro, Sebastian; Dasgupta, Kunal; Horstmann, Ignatius J.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; University of Toronto
摘要：Previous research has documented that export shipments are lumpy-exporters make infrequent and relatively large shipments to any given export destination. This fact has been interpreted as implying that fixed, per shipment cost and inventory management decisions play a key role in international trade. We document here that exports from poor countries are considerably more lumpy-have higher fixed per shipment cost-than those from rich countries. Using a model of trade with inventory management,...
