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作者：Bento, Pedro
作者单位：West Virginia University
摘要：incorporate an insight of Friedrich Hayek-that competition allows a thousand flowers to bloom, and discovers the best among them-into a model of Schumpeterian innovation. Firms face uncertainty about the optimal direction of innovation, so more innovations implies a higher expected value of the best innovation. The model accounts for two seemingly contradictory relationships reported in recent empirical studies-a positive relationship between competition and industry-level productivity growth,...
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作者：Kopecky, Karen A.; Koreshkova, Tatyana
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; Concordia University - Canada
摘要：We consider a life-cycle model with idiosyncratic risk in earnings, out-of-pocket medical and nursing home expenses, and survival. Partial insurance is available through welfare, Medicaid, and social security. Calibrating the model to the United States we show that savings for old-age, out-of-pocket expenses account for 13.5 percent of aggregate wealth, half of which is due to nursing home expenses; cross-sectional out-of-pocket nursing home risk accounts for 3 percent of aggregate wealth and ...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the l...
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作者：Chanda, Areendam; Cook, C. Justin; Putterman, Louis
作者单位：Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; University of California System; University of California Merced; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Brown University
摘要：Using data on place of origin of today's country populations and the indicators of level of development in 1500 used by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2002), we confirm a reversal of fortune for colonized countries as territories, but find persistence of fortune for people and their descendants. Persistence results are at least as strong for three alternative measures of early development, for which reversal for territories, however, fails to hold. Additional exercises lend support to Glaese...
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作者：Mason, J. W.; Jayadev, Arjun
作者单位：Roosevelt University; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Azim Premji Foundation; Azim Premji University Bengaluru
摘要：The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these Fisher dynamics on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929-2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More rec...
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作者：Nagar, Venky; Yu, Gwen
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Harvard University
摘要：We provide among the first empirical evidence, consistent with recent macro global game crisis models, that shows that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises. In these models, self-fulfilling crises independent of fundamentals can occur only when publicly disclosed signals of fundamentals have high precision; poor fundamentals are the sole driver of crises only in low precision settings. We exploit a key publicly disclosed signal of fundamentals, namely accounting data, for 68 c...
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作者：Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We show that the behavior of entrepreneurs facing incomplete financial markets and risky investment can explain why accelerations of productivity growth in developing countries tend to be associated with current account improvements. Under uninsurable investment risk, entrepreneurs have to largely rely on self-financing so that, when productivity growth rises, entrepreneurs increase saving to finance new investment. The key insight is that saving has to increase more than investment to also al...
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作者：Chahrour, Ryan
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：This paper models the tradeoff, perceived by central banks and other public actors, between providing the public with useful information and the risk of overwhelming it with excessive communication. An information authority chooses how many signals to provide regarding an aggregate state and agents respond by choosing how many signals to observe. When agents desire coordination, the number of signals they acquire may decrease in the number released. The optimal quantity of communication is pos...
