The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Zhang, Jing
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.3.153
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 153-183
• 关键词: economic-implications; gravity

摘要

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased toward its comparative disadvantage sectors. This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade. (JEL F14, F43, 019, 033, 047, P24, P33)