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作者：Johnson, Robert C.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade-comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comove...
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作者：Liu, Zheng; Wang, Pengfei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We argue that credit constraints not only amplify fundamental shocks, they can also lead to self-fulfilling business cycles. We study a model with heterogeneous firms, in which imperfect contract enforcement implies that productive firms face binding credit constraints, with the borrowing capacity limited by expected equity value. A drop in equity value tightens credit constraints and reallocates resources from productive to unproductive firms. Such reallocation reduces aggregate productivity,...
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作者：Tjaden, Volker; Wellschmied, Felix
作者单位：University of Bonn; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We empirically establish that one-third of job transitions leads to wage losses. Using a quantitative on-the-job search model, we find that 60 percent of them are movements down the job ladder. Accounting for them, our baseline calibration matches the large residual wage inequality in US data while attributing only 13.7 percent of overall wage inequality to the presence of search frictions in the labor market. We can trace the difference between ours and previous much higher estimates to our e...
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作者：Liu, Xuepeng; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Kennesaw State University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the relationship between participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) and the sustainability of democracy. Our model shows that FTAs can critically reduce the incentive of authoritarian groups to seek power by destroying protectionist rents, thus making democracies last longer. This gives governments in unstable democracies an extra motive to form FTAs. Hence, greater democratic instability induces governments to boost their FTA commitments. In a data-set with 116 countries over 1960...
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作者：Messina, Julian; Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna
作者单位：The World Bank; Universitat de Girona; The World Bank
摘要：This paper examines the consequences of rapid disinflation for downward wage rigidities in two emerging countries, Brazil and Uruguay. Although wage rigidities are altered by disinflation, in neither of the two countries does price stability eliminate frictions in wage-setting mechanisms. In a context of individual wage negotiations and weak unions, disinflation in Uruguay puts an end to its history of indexation, but strong resistance to nominal wage cuts emerges. In strongly unionized Brazil...
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作者：Bento, Pedro
作者单位：West Virginia University
摘要：incorporate an insight of Friedrich Hayek-that competition allows a thousand flowers to bloom, and discovers the best among them-into a model of Schumpeterian innovation. Firms face uncertainty about the optimal direction of innovation, so more innovations implies a higher expected value of the best innovation. The model accounts for two seemingly contradictory relationships reported in recent empirical studies-a positive relationship between competition and industry-level productivity growth,...
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作者：Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We conduct likelihood evaluation of a DSGE model in which firms have imperfect common knowledge. Imperfect common knowledge is found to be more successful than price stickiness a la Calvo to account for the highly persistent effects of nominal shocks on output and inflation. Our likelihood analysis suggests that firms pay little attention to aggregate nominal conditions. This paper shows that such allocation of attention is plausible because it is optimal for firms with a reasonably small size...
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作者：Michaillat, Pascal
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：I develop a New Keynesian model in which a type of government multiplier doubles when unemployment rises from 5 percent to 8 percent. This multiplier indicates the additional number of workers employed when one worker is hired in the public sector. Graphically, in equilibrium, an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply intersects a downward-sloping labor demand in a (employment, labor market tightness) plane. Increasing public employment stimulates labor demand, which increases tightness and therefo...
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作者：Kopecky, Karen A.; Koreshkova, Tatyana
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; Concordia University - Canada
摘要：We consider a life-cycle model with idiosyncratic risk in earnings, out-of-pocket medical and nursing home expenses, and survival. Partial insurance is available through welfare, Medicaid, and social security. Calibrating the model to the United States we show that savings for old-age, out-of-pocket expenses account for 13.5 percent of aggregate wealth, half of which is due to nursing home expenses; cross-sectional out-of-pocket nursing home risk accounts for 3 percent of aggregate wealth and ...
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作者：Charnavoki, Valery; Dolado, Juan J.
作者单位：New Economic School; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; European University Institute
摘要：We propose a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy, using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel datasets of the global and domestic economies, sign restrictions are used to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain volatility in real commodity prices. We quantify their dynamic effects on a wide variety of Canadian macro variables. We are able to reproduce all the main stylized features at business-cycle frequencies documente...
