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作者：Hendricks, Lutz; Herrington, Christopher; Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Virginia Commonwealth University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States and document a reversal: family background was a better predictor of college attendance before World War II, but academic ability was afterward. We construct a model of college choice that explains this reversal. The model's central mechanism is that an exogenous surge of college attendance leads better colleges to be oversubscribed, institute selective admissions, and raise their quality relative to their peers, a...
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作者：Abel, Joshua; Fuster, Andreas
作者单位：Analysis Group Inc.; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We use quasi-random access to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify the causal effect of refinancing into a lower-rate mortgage on borrower balance sheet outcomes. Refinancing substantially reduces borrower default rates on mortgages and other debt. Refinancing also causes borrowers to expand their use of debt instruments, such as auto loans, home equity lines, and other consumer debts that are proxies for spending. Borrowers that appear more constrained ex ante grow these d...
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作者：Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai; Ng, Serena
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Columbia University
摘要：Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuat...
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作者：Brynjolfsson, Erik; Rock, Daniel; Syverson, Chad
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; University of Chicago
摘要：General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find th...
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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong
作者单位：University of Virginia; Seoul National University (SNU); Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages and a (standard) monetary policy rule contribute to a slow response of prices to aggregate shocks. In turn, labor market segmentation at the sectoral level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps the model deliver a fast response of prices to sector-specific shocks. We ...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Johnson, Stephanie; Kueng, Lorenz
作者单位：Northwestern University; Rice University; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using comprehensive high-frequency state and local sales tax data, we show that shopping behavior responds strongly to changes in sales tax rates. Even though sales taxes are not observed in posted prices and have a wide range of rates and exemptions, consumers adjust in many dimensions. They stock up on storable goods before taxes rise and increase online and -cross-border shopping in both the short and long run. The difference between short- and -long-run spending responses has important imp...
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作者：Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolbin, Sergey; Nosal, Jaromir B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Amazon.com; Boston College
摘要：Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each...
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作者：Albert, Christoph
摘要：This paper studies the labor market effects of both documented and undocumented immigration in a search model featuring nonrandom hiring. As immigrants accept lower wages, they are preferably chosen by firms and therefore have higher job finding rates than natives, consistent with evidence found in US data. Immigration leads to the creation of additional jobs but also raises competition for natives. The dominant effect depends on the fall in wage costs, which is larger for undocumented immigra...
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作者：Nordhaus, William D.
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO2 emissions lead to catast...
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作者：Van der Ghote, Alejandro
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：I study monetary and macroprudential policy intervention in a general equilibrium economy with recurrent boom-bust cycles. Recurrence causes forward-looking variables to also react to policy intervention during phases in which the intervention is inactive. Macroprudential policies that contain systemic risk in financial markets during booms, therefore, relax market-based funding constraints during busts, which helps mitigate the severity and shorten the duration of economic meltdowns. Contract...
