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作者：Carrillo, Julio A.; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Nuguer, Victoria; Roldan-Pena, Jessica
作者单位：Bank of Mexico; University of Pennsylvania; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：Violations of Tinbergen's rule and strategic interaction undermine stabilization policies in a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator. Welfare costs of risk shocks are large because of efficiency losses and income effects of costly monitoring, but they are much larger under a simple Taylor rule (STR) or a Taylor rule augmented with credit spreads (ATR) than with a Taylor rule and a separate financial rule targeting spreads. ATR and STR are tight -money-tight credit regimes r...
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作者：Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando; Tretvoll, Hakon
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Statistics Norway; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key-cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced...
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作者：Datta, Deepa D.; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Kwon, Hannah; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：From late 2008 to 2014, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence that these changes resulted from the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, consistent with the theoretical predictions of a model that includes the ZLB. Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been la...
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作者：Dvorkin, Maximiliano A.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Sovereign debt crises involve debt restructurings characterized by a mix of face value haircuts and maturity extensions. The prevalence of maturity extensions has been hard to reconcile with economic theory. We develop a model of endogenous debt restructuring that captures key facts of sovereign debt and restructuring episodes. While debt dilution pushes for negative maturity extensions, three factors are important in overcoming the effects of dilution and generating maturity extensions upon r...
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作者：Wu, Chunzan; Krueger, Dirk
作者单位：Peking University; University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Tilburg University
摘要：We show that a calibrated life cycle two-earner household model with endogenous labor supply can rationalize the extent of consumption insurance against shocks to male and female wages, as estimated empirically by Blundell, Pistaferri, and Saporta-Eksten (2016) in US data. In the model, 35 percent of male and 18 percent of female permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption, compared to the empirical estimates of 32 percent and 19 percent. Most of the consumption insurance against permane...
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作者：Bracke, Philippe; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using data on the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales over a 20-year period, we document that sale prices and selling propensities are affected by house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. Using administrative data on mortgages, we show that cognitive frictions explain most of the history dependence in sale prices, whereas credit frictions are more relevant for selling propensities. We corroborate our analysis with data on online house ...
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作者：Blanco, Andres
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features -firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibilit...
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作者：Somale, Mariano
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic model of innovation and international trade in which agents can direct their research efforts to specific goods in the economy. Trade affects the direction of innovation through its impact on the expected market size for an invention, leading to a two-way relationship between trade and technology absent in standard quantitative Ricardian models. Following a theory-consistent strategy to estimate the extent of endogenous adjustments in technology, I find that they ...
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作者：Athreya, Kartik; Eberly, Janice
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Despite increases in the college earnings premium to persistently high levels, investment in college education remains low. We can understand this apparent puzzle by considering the risk of attending college and, in particular, the possibility of failing to graduate. Students with a reasonable probability of completing college already enroll, and for those who do not enroll, the low chance of completion blunts the impact of the rising college premium. In the absence of improved college readine...
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作者：Gali, Jordi
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：I analyze an extension of the New Keynesian model that features overlapping generations of finitely lived agents and (stochastic) transitions to inactivity. In contrast with the standard model, the proposed framework allows for the existence of rational expectations equilibria with asset price bubbles. I study the conditions under which bubble-driven fluctuations may emerge and the type of monetary policy rules that may prevent them. I conclude by discussing some of the model's welfare implica...
