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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, Antonio; Sala, Luca; Soccorsi, Stefano
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; University of Turin; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Bocconi University; Lancaster University
摘要：We provide a few new empirical facts that theoretical models should feature in order to be consistent with the data. (i) There are two classes of shocks: demand and supply. Supply shocks have long-run effects on economic activity; demand shocks do not. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of business cycles' fluctuations. (iii) Supply shocks are the primary driver for consumption fluctuations, demand shocks for investment. (iv) The demand shock is closely related to the cre...
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作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz; Schmidt, Sebastian
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Fiscal backing is the idea that for the price level to be uniquely determined, fiscal policy must be active at least in some states of the world. We extend the fiscal theory of the price level to a heterogenous monetary union. Different combinations of national fiscal policies and a common fiscal policy with Eurobonds amount to active fiscal policy for the union. They all yield price-level determinacy but can have very different implications for the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. We pr...
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作者：Roldan, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：I examine the role of households' precautionary savings motive in amplifying and propagating movements in sovereign spreads. I study this mechanism in a model where the government of a small open economy borrows from foreigners, but the debt is then partially held by heterogeneous domestic savers. In a calibration to Spain in the 2000s, I find that default risk accounts for about half of the output contraction. More generally, sovereign risk exacerbates volatility in consumption over time and ...
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作者：Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while micro studies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We construct hundreds of variables from high-frequency, high-spatial-resolution weather measurements. Using the LASSO, we identify the parsimonious subset of variables that can best explain GDP and key macrofiscal variables. We find that scarcer mild temperatures and an increase in the occurrence of high temperatu...
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作者：Cirelli, Fernando; Gertler, Mark
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：During the pandemic recession, firms directly exposed to the virus- i.e. the contact sector-contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that won by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the noncontact sector. We sh...
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作者：Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across ...
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作者：Cai, Xiaoming; Gautier, Pieter; Wolthoff, Ronald
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Toronto
摘要：We examine how search frictions impact labor market sorting by constructing a model consistent with evidence that employers interview a subset of a pool of applicants. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for sorting in applications and matches. Positive sorting is obtained when production complementarities outweigh a counterforce measured by a (novel) quality-quantity elasticity. Interestingly, the threshold for the complementarities depends on the fraction of high-type workers and c...
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作者：Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A model with two essential elements-sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies-explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk, and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal trade-offs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits and in...
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作者：Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Zaratiegui, Emilio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：We study the distribution of labor income during large devaluations. Across countries, inequality falls after large devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better understand inequality dynamics, we use a novel administrative dataset covering the 2002 Argentinean devaluation. We show that following a homogeneous fall in real labor income across workers, the bottom of the income distribution recovers faster than the top....
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作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
