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作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of British Columbia
摘要：Countries become more politically polarized and fractionalized following financial crises, reducing the likelihood of major financial reforms precisely when they might have especially large benefits. The evidence from a large sample of countries provides strong support for the hypotheses that following a financial crisis, voters become more ideologically extreme and ruling coalitions become weaker, independently of whether they were initially in power. The evidence that increased polarization ...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Sassari
摘要：We present a monetary model with segmented asset markets that implies a persistent fall in interest rates after a once-and-for-all increase in liquidity. The gradual propagation mechanism produced by our model is novel in the literature. We provide an analytical characterization of this mechanism, showing that the magnitude of the liquidity effect on impact, and its persistence, depend on the ratio of two parameters: the long-run interest rate elasticity of money demand and the intertemporal s...
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作者：Huntley, Jonathan; Michelangeli, Valentina
作者单位：Congressional Budget Office; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We build a life-cycle model with earnings risk, liquidity constraints, and portfolio choice over tax-deferred and taxable assets to evaluate how household consumption changes in response to shocks to transitory anticipated income, such as the 2001 income tax rebate. Households optimally invest in tax-deferred assets, which are encumbered by withdrawal penalties, and exchange taxable precautionary savings for higher after-tax returns. The model predicts a higher marginal propensity to consume o...
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作者：Nagar, Venky; Yu, Gwen
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Harvard University
摘要：We provide among the first empirical evidence, consistent with recent macro global game crisis models, that shows that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises. In these models, self-fulfilling crises independent of fundamentals can occur only when publicly disclosed signals of fundamentals have high precision; poor fundamentals are the sole driver of crises only in low precision settings. We exploit a key publicly disclosed signal of fundamentals, namely accounting data, for 68 c...
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作者：Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We show that the behavior of entrepreneurs facing incomplete financial markets and risky investment can explain why accelerations of productivity growth in developing countries tend to be associated with current account improvements. Under uninsurable investment risk, entrepreneurs have to largely rely on self-financing so that, when productivity growth rises, entrepreneurs increase saving to finance new investment. The key insight is that saving has to increase more than investment to also al...
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作者：Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income a...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Blattman, Christopher
作者单位：Boston University; Columbia University
摘要：Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counterinsurgency capac...
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作者：Comin, Diego; Loayza, Norman; Pasha, Farooq; Serven, Luis
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; The World Bank
摘要：We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N) to developing economies (S) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S;...
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作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We use responses to survey questions in the 2010 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth that ask consumers how much of an unexpected transitory income change they would consume. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 48 percent on average. We also find substantial heterogeneity in the distribution, as households with low cash-on-hand exhibit a much higher MPC than affluent households, which is in agreement with models with precautionary savings, where income risk plays an important...
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作者：Chahrour, Ryan
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：This paper models the tradeoff, perceived by central banks and other public actors, between providing the public with useful information and the risk of overwhelming it with excessive communication. An information authority chooses how many signals to provide regarding an aggregate state and agents respond by choosing how many signals to observe. When agents desire coordination, the number of signals they acquire may decrease in the number released. The optimal quantity of communication is pos...
