Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Comin, Diego; Loayza, Norman; Pasha, Farooq; Serven, Luis
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.209
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 209-245
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; INVESTMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; shocks

摘要

We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N) to developing economies (S) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S; the cross-correlation of outputs is larger than consumption; and interest rates in S are countercyclical.