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作者：Monnet, Eric
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary po...
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作者：Eichenbaum, Martin; Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sergio; Smith, Josephine
作者单位：Northwestern University; Duke University; New York University
摘要：Recent empirical work suggests that small price changes are relatively common. This evidence has been used to criticize classic menu-cost models. In this paper, we use scanner data from a national supermarket chain and micro data from the Consumer Price Index to reassess the importance of small price changes. We argue that the vast majority of these changes are due to measurement error. We conclude that the evidence on the prevalence of small price changes is much too weak to be used as a litm...
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作者：Gagnon, Etienne; Mandel, Benjamin R.; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on US inflation. However, exchange rate pass-through may be underestimated because some price changes are missed when constructing price indexes. We investigate downward biases that arise when items exit or enter the US import price index. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata, we find that, although potentially large in theory, the empirical biases are modest over typical forecast horizons. As ...
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作者：Ardagna, Silvia; Caselli, Francesco
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that these equilibria were likely not on the Pareto frontier, and sketch political-economy arguments for why collective policymaking in the Euro area may lead to suboptimal outcomes.
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作者：Misra, Kanishka; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Almost half of American families did not adjust their consumption following receipt of the 2001 or 2008 tax rebates. Another 20 percent, with low income and more likely to rent, spent a small but significant amount. Households with large spending propensity held high levels of mortgage debt. The heterogeneity is concentrated in a few nondurable categories and a handful of new vehicle purchases. The cumulated predictions of the heterogeneous response model tend to be smaller and more accurate t...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2
摘要：We show that welfare can be lower under complete financial markets than under autarky in a monetary union with home bias, sticky prices, and asymmetric shocks. Such a monetary union is a second-best environment in which the structure of financial markets affects risk-sharing but also shapes the dynamics of inflation rates and the welfare costs from nominal rigidities. Welfare reversals arise for a variety of empirically plausible degrees of price stickiness when the Marshall-Lerner condition i...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the l...
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作者：Chanda, Areendam; Cook, C. Justin; Putterman, Louis
作者单位：Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; University of California System; University of California Merced; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Brown University
摘要：Using data on place of origin of today's country populations and the indicators of level of development in 1500 used by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2002), we confirm a reversal of fortune for colonized countries as territories, but find persistence of fortune for people and their descendants. Persistence results are at least as strong for three alternative measures of early development, for which reversal for territories, however, fails to hold. Additional exercises lend support to Glaese...
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作者：Mason, J. W.; Jayadev, Arjun
作者单位：Roosevelt University; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Azim Premji Foundation; Azim Premji University Bengaluru
摘要：The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these Fisher dynamics on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929-2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More rec...
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作者：Kraay, Aart
摘要：I use a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loa...
