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作者：Nakata, Taisuke
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：When the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerb...
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作者：Moro, Alessio; Moslehi, Solmaz; Tanaka, Satoshi
作者单位：University of Cagliari; Monash University; University of Queensland
摘要：Using new home production data for the United States, we estimate a model of structural transformation with a home production sector, allowing for both non-homotheticity of preferences and differential productivity growth in each sector. We report two main findings. First, the estimation results show that home services have a lower income elasticity than market services. Second, the slowdown in home labor productivity, which started in the late 70s, is a key determinant of the rise of market s...
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作者：Cao, Dan; Nie, Guangyu
作者单位：Georgetown University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：The seminal contribution by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) has spurred a vast literature on the importance of collateral constraints in propagating and amplifying shocks to the economy. However, most papers in the literature using collateral constraints assume non-state-contingent debt, i.e., markets are incomplete. To assess the relative importance of collateral constraints versus market incompleteness, we study a calibrated incomplete markets model and solve it with and without collateral constra...
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作者：Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi
作者单位：Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
摘要：China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce curr...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National University of La Plata; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a...
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作者：Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S.; Paustian, Matthias
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Notre Dame
摘要：This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are ...
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作者：Baydur, Ismail
作者单位：Singapore Management University
摘要：This paper incorporates worker selection into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. Unlike the standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model, the extended model is compatible with cross-sectional behavior of vacancy yields, which rise with employment growth and worker turnover, but fall with establishment size. Using calibrated versions of the standard and worker selection models, I show that accounting for these patterns has quantitatively important policy implications. I also ...
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作者：Bems, Rudolfs; Johnson, Robert C.
作者单位：University of Tokyo; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine how cross-border input linkages shape the response of demand for value added to international relative price changes. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes. Spillovers via input linkages lower the sensitivity of the value-added REER to price changes by supply chain partners because they counterbalance demand-side expenditure switching. Input linkages also raise the price elasticity of demand relative t...
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作者：Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisher...
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作者：Bento, Pedro; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider a model of heterogeneous production units with endogenous entry and productivity investment to assess the quantitative impact of policy distortions: when the productivity elasticity of distortions increases from 0.09 in the United States to 0.5 in India, aggregate output and average establishment size fall by 53 and 86 percent (37 and 0 percent in the standard factor misallocation model). Entry productivity and factor misallocation contribute equally to the reduction in output, whe...
