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作者：Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hryshko, Dmytro; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Sorensen, Bent E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Alberta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level mortgage data to estimate how home equity interacted with mobility in relatively weak and strong labor markets in the United States during the Great Recession. We construct a dynamic model of housing, consumption, employment, and relocation, which provides a structural interpretation of our empirical results and allows us to explore the role that foreclosure played in labor mobility. We find that negative home equity is not a signif...
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作者：Kehrig, Matthias; Ziebarth, Nicolas L.
作者单位：Duke University; Auburn University System; Auburn University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We find that oil supply shocks decrease average real wages, particularly skilled wages, and increase wage dispersion across regions, particularly unskilled wage dispersion. In a model with spatial energy intensity differences and nontradables, labor demand shifts, while explaining the response of average wages to oil supply shocks, have counterfactual implications for the response of wage dispersion. Only an additional response in labor supply can explain this latter fact, highlighting the imp...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Grill, Michael
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Vienna
摘要：When is it optimal fora fully committed government to default on its legal repayment obligations? Considering a small open economy with domestic production risk and noncontingent government debt, we show that it is ex ante optimal to occasionally deviate from the legal repayment obligation and to repay debt only partially. This holds true even if default generates significant deadweight costs ex post. A quantitative analysis reveals that default is optimal only in response to persistent disast...
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作者：Parker, Jonathan A.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper evaluates theoretical explanations for the propensity of households to increase spending in response to the arrival of predictable, lump-sum payments, using households in the Nielsen Consumer Panel who received $25 million in randomly distributed stimulus payments. The pattern of spending is inconsistent with models in which identical households cycle rapidly through high and low-response states as they manage liquidity, but is instead highly predictable by income years before the p...
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作者：Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro; Kam, Timothy; Waller, Christopher
作者单位：Deakin University; Australian National University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies that can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed cost and the decision to counterfeit is private information. This induces equilibrium liquidity constraints on the currencies in circulation. We show that the threat of counterfeiting can pin down the nom...
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作者：Forinirni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Lippi, Marco; Sala, Luca
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We investigate the role of noise shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations. To do so we set up a simple model of imperfect information and derive restrictions for identifying the noise shock in a VAR model. The novelty of our approach is that identification is reached by means of dynamic rotations of the reduced-form residuals. We find that noise shocks generate hump-shaped responses of GDP, consumption and investment, and account for a sizable fraction of their prediction error varian...
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作者：Fernandez, Raquel; Wong, Joyce Cheng
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); International Monetary Fund
摘要：During the 1970s, the United States switched from mutual consent to a unilateral divorce regime. Who benefited/lost from this change? We develop a dynamic life cycle model in which agents make consumption, saving, work, and marital-status decisions under a given divorce regime. Calibrating the model to match key moments for the 1940 cohort and conditioning solely on gender, our ex ante welfare analysis finds that women fare better under mutual consent whereas men prefer a unilateral system. Co...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Nistico, Salvatore
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Sapienza University Rome
摘要：This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and pseudo-safe assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest rate spreads and can cause a deep recession-cum-deflation. Expanding the central bank's balance sheet fills the shortage of safe assets and counteracts the recession. Lowering the interest rate on reserves insulates market interest rates from the liquidity shock and impro...
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作者：Nakamura, Emi; Sergeyev, Dmitriy; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：Columbia University; Bocconi University; Columbia University
摘要：We provide new estimates of the importance of growth-rate shocks and uncertainty shocks for developed countries. The shocks we estimate are large and correspond to well-known macroeconomic episodes such as the Great Moderation and the productivity slowdown. We compare our results to earlier estimates of long-run risks and assess the implications for asset pricing. Our estimates yield greater return predictability and a more volatile price-dividend ratio. In addition, we can explain a substanti...
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作者：Atalay, Enghin
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop and estimate a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors. Using data on US industries' input prices and input choices, I find that the goods produced by different industries are complements to one another as inputs in downstream industries' production functions. These complementarities indicate that i...
