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作者：Eeckhout, Jan; Lindenlaub, Ilse
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of London; University College London; Yale University
摘要：The labor market by itself can create cyclical outcomes, even in the absence of exogenous shocks. We propose a theory in which the search behavior of the employed has profound aggregate implications for the unemployed. There is a strategic complementarity between active on-the-job search and vacancy posting by firms, which leads to multiple equilibria: in the presence of sorting, active on-the-job search improves the quality of the pool of searchers. This encourages vacancy posting, which in t...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek; Neira, Julian
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Exeter
摘要：We study optimal tax policies in a-life-cycle economy with permanent ability differences and risky human capital investments that have both an unobservable component, learning effort, and an observable component, schooling. The optimal policies balance redistribution across agents, insurance against human capital shocks, and incentives to learn and work. In the optimum, (i)-high-ability agents face risky consumption while-low-ability agents are insured; (ii) the optimal schooling subsidy is su...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Kurozumi, Takushi
作者单位：Bank of Japan
摘要：Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and accompanied by slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted? We address this issue by developing a model with endogenous TFP growth in which an adverse financial shock can induce a slow recovery. In the model, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much larger than wh...
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作者：Ongena, Steven; Popov, Alexander; Van Horen, Neeltje
作者单位：University of Zurich; KU Leuven; European Central Bank; Bank of England
摘要：Using proprietary data on banks' monthly securities holdings, we show that during the European sovereign debt crisis, domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of domestic sovereign bonds during months when the government needed to roll over a relatively large amount of maturing debt. This result cannot be explained by risk shifting, carry trading, or regulatory compliance. Domestic banks that received government s...
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作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.; West, Kenneth D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force ...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Osotimehin, Sophie
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We study how factors that hinder the reallocation of inputs across firms influence aggregate productivity growth. We extend Hopenhayn and Rogerson's (1993) firm-dynamics model to allow for endogenous innovation. We evaluate the effects of firing taxes on reallocation, innovation, and productivity growth. We find firing taxes can have opposite effects on entrants' innovation and incumbents' innovation, and the overall outcome depends on the relative strengths of these forces. In the entrant-dri...
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作者：Camous, Antoine; Cooper, Russell
作者单位：University of Mannheim; European University Institute; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt, leaving a government with a higher debt burden. This increases the likelihood of default, thus confirming the pessimism of lenders. Can monetary interventions mitigate debt fragility? With one-period commitment to a state-contingent policy, the monetary authority can indeed overcome strategic uncertainty. Under discretion, debt-fragility remains unless reputat...
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作者：He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model al...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Optimal forward guidance is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some optimally determined number of periods after the liquidity trap ends and moving to normal-times optimal policy thereafter. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new Keynesian model and show that it is close to fully optimal Ramsey policy. The simple rule announce a duration of half of the trap's duration times the disruption is a good approximation, including in a medium-scale dynamic stochastic...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Ghironi, Fabio; Melitz, Marc J.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The inefficiencies related to endogenous product creation and variety under monopolistic competition are-two-fold: one static-the misalignment between consumers and producers regarding the value of a new variety; and one dynamic-time variation in markups. When production factors (labor and physical capital) are elastic and traded in competitive markets, further distortions appear. Appropriate taxation schemes can restore optimality if they preserve entry incentives. Quantitatively, the welfare...
