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作者：Rozsypal, Filip; Schlafmann, Kathrin
作者单位：Danish Finance Institute; Copenhagen Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the impli-cations of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative mo...
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作者：Cheung, T. Terry
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：Demography and structural transformation are interrelated, and depend critically on education. At the turn of the twentieth century, US parents began having fewer children while increasing educa-tional investment per child. This quantity-quality tradeoff facilitated job reallocation from the low-skilled agricultural sector to the high-skilled nonagricultural sector. This transformation is examined in a heterogeneous agent model with a nondegenerate human capital distribution, focusing on how f...
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作者：Fried, Stephie; Lagakos, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Boston University
摘要：Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical litera...
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作者：Erceg, Christopher; Prestipino, Andrea; Raffo, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Fiscal devaluations-an increase in import tariffs and export sub-sidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsi-dies (VP)- have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany's underperformance in response t...
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作者：Bilk, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Vanderbilt University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quar-ters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays w...
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作者：Coulibaly, Louphou
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the govern-ment lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is pro-cyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial cri...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Chen, Huigang; Otrok, Christopher; Rebucci, Alessandro; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Facebook Inc; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Johns Hopkins University; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：There is a new and now large literature analyzing government poli-cies for financial stability based on models with endogenous borrow-ing constraints. These normative analyses build upon the concept of constrained efficient allocation where the social planner is con-strained by the same borrowing limit that agents face. In this paper, we show that there exists at least one set of tools implementing the constrained efficient allocation that can also be used by a Ramsey planner to replicate an u...
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作者：Camehl, Annika; Rieth, Malte
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel struc-tural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, iden-tified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and per-sistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent o...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Feenstra, Robert C.; Inklaar, Robert
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Groningen
摘要：We use the structure of the Melitz (2003) model to compute the cost of living and welfare across 47 countries, and compare these to conventional measures of prices and real consumption from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). The cost of living is inferred without directly using ICP prices of traded goods and instead relying on output prices, openness, domestic trade costs, and product variety measured by the counts of barcodes or firms. We find that welfare relative to the United Sta...
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作者：Xing, Jianwei; Zou, Eric Yongchen; Yin, Zhentao; Wang, Yong; Li, Zhenhua
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
摘要：We study a new consumption stimulus program implemented by a large Chinese city that leverages mobile payment platforms to dis-pense massive amounts of small-value digital coupons. Exploiting a rush design of the dispensing process in which over 1 million pro-gram participants compete for coupons on a first-come, first-served basis through a digital portal, we estimate that winning coupons increases weekly out-of-pocket spending by US$3 for every US$1 in government subsidy. Coupon-winning cons...
