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作者：Bils, Mark; Kaymak, Baris; Wu, Kai-jie
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Given worldwide trends in education, wage premium for schooling, and real GDP, we derive a lower bound for the long-run elasticity of labor substitution across schooling groups of around 4, which is far higher than values commonly used in the literature. We exploit our bound to reexamine the importance of human capital in cross-country income differences, including the roles of school quality versus the skill bias of technology in the greater efficiency gains from schooling in richer countries...
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作者：Brumm, Johannes; Feng, Xiangyu; Kotlikoff, Laurence; Kubler, Felix
作者单位：Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Xiamen University; Boston University; University of Zurich
摘要：Is deficit finance free when real borrowing rates are routinely lower than growth rates? Specifically, can the government make all generations better off by perpetually taking from the young and giving to the old? We study this in stochastic closed- and open-economy OLG models. Unfortunately, Pareto gains are predicted only for implausible calibrations. Even then, the gains reflect improved inter- generational risk sharing, improved international risk sharing, and beggaring thy neighbor-not in...
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作者：Fitzgerald, Terry; Jones, Callum; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan pablo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Sydney; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：Evaluating the stability of the Phillips curve using aggregate data is challenging due to the bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We argue that regional data can be used to identify the structural relationship between unemployment and inflation. Our analysis, using city- and state-level data from 1977 to 2017, is consistent with the notion that both the reduced-form and the structural parameters of the Phillips curve are, to a substantial degr...
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作者：Gautier, Erwan; Conflitti, Cristina; Faber, Riemer P.; Fabo, Brian; Fadejeva, Ludmila; Jouvanceau, Valentin; Menz, Jan-oliver; Messner, Teresa; Petroulas, Pavlos; Roldan-blanco, Pau; Rumler, Fabio; Santoro, Sergio; Wieland, Elisabeth; Zimmer, Helene
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium; National Bank of Slovakia; Slovak Academy of Sciences; Bank of Lithuania; Deutsche Bundesbank; Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB); European Central Bank; Bank of Greece; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：Using CPI microdata for 11 euro area countries over 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: ( i ) the average frequency of price changes is 12 percent; ( ii ) the distribution of price changes is highly dispersed, with frequent large and small changes; ( iii ) price changes are more frequent in January; and ( iv ) the overall size of price changes rises with inflation, but their frequency does not; these changes in the size are driven by movements in th...
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作者：Fishback, Price; Vickers, Chris; Ziebarth, Nicolas l.
作者单位：University of Arizona; National Bureau of Economic Research; Auburn University System; Auburn University
摘要：We study the effects of restrictions on the length of the workweek under the President's Reemployment Agreement ( PRA ) of July 1933 and the National Industrial Recovery Act. We construct a model in which the equilibrium without such a workweek restriction has an inefficiently low level of employment. We find that employment rose by about 24 percent in the month following the imposition of the workweek restriction. Industries with longer workweeks pre-PRA experienced 9.4 percent faster growth ...
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作者：Burlon, Lorenzo; Munoz, Manuel a.; Smets, Frank
作者单位：European Central Bank; Ghent University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank's deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency ( CBDC ) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the...
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作者：Miao, Jianjun; Su, Dongling
作者单位：Boston University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set o...
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作者：Ganapati, Sharat; Wong, Woan foong; Ziv, Oren
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; Michigan State University
摘要：We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrep & ocirc;ts-major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale e...
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作者：Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen j.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that ...
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作者：Pindyck, Robert s.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have ( positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. F...
