Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fitzgerald, Terry; Jones, Callum; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan pablo
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Sydney; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220273
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 114-142
• 关键词: household leverage; prices; identification; models

摘要

Evaluating the stability of the Phillips curve using aggregate data is challenging due to the bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We argue that regional data can be used to identify the structural relationship between unemployment and inflation. Our analysis, using city- and state-level data from 1977 to 2017, is consistent with the notion that both the reduced-form and the structural parameters of the Phillips curve are, to a substantial degree, quite stable.