-
作者：Kim, Young-Chul; Loury, Glenn C.
作者单位：Sogang University; Brown University
摘要：Economists have developed theoretical models identifying self-fulfilling expectations as an important source of statistical discrimination practices. The static models dominating the literature, however, may leave the false impression that a bad equilibrium is as fragile as a bubble and can burst at any moment when expectations flip. By developing a dynamic version of the model, we clarify the limits of expectations-related fragility. Even if group members can coordinate their expectations abo...
-
作者：Lagerlof, Johan N. M.; Schottmueller, Christoph
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Tilburg University
摘要：We study a monopoly insurance model with endogenous information acquisition. Through a continuous effort choice, consumers can determine the precision of a privately observed signal that is informative about their accident risk. The equilibrium effort is, depending on parameter values, either zero (implying symmetric information) or positive (implying privately informed consumers). Regardless of the nature of the equilibrium, all offered contracts, also at the top, involve underinsurance, whic...
-
作者：Beauchamp, Andrew; Sanzenbacher, Geoffrey; Seitz, Shannon; Skira, Meghan M.
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Wright State University Dayton; Boston College; Analysis Group Inc.; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：Why do some men father children outside of marriage without providing support? Why do some women have children outside of marriage when they receive little support from fathers? Why is this behavior more common among Blacks than Whites? We estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of marriage, employment, fertility, and child support decisions. We consider the extent to which low earnings, marriage market conditions, and preference heterogeneity explain nonmarital childbearing, deadbeat fatherhood,...
-
作者：Byrne, Joseph P.; Korobilis, Dimitris; Ribeiro, Pinho J.
作者单位：Heriot Watt University; University of Essex; University of Glasgow
摘要：In a unified framework, we examine four sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting models: (i) random variations in the data, (ii) estimation uncertainty, (iii) uncertainty about the degree of time variation in coefficients, and (iv) uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor. We find that models that embed a high degree of coefficient variability yield forecast improvements at horizons beyond one month. At the one-month horizon, and apart from the standard variance implied by ...
-
作者：Ko, Chiu Yu; Koyama, Mark; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
作者单位：National University of Singapore; George Mason University
摘要：This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasion...
-
作者：Gawn, Glynis; Innes, Robert
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced
摘要：Does honesty promote trust and trustworthiness? We investigate how being lied to (versus told the truth) in a Gneezy deception game affects behavior in a subsequent trust game with different players. Using a design that controls for potential treatment effects on payoffs, mood, and beliefs about the overall propensity for honesty in the experiment, we find that the specific experience of being lied to significantly erodes trust and trustworthiness.
-
作者：Xu, Haiqing
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This article studies estimation of social interactions in a large network game, where all observations come from one single equilibrium of a network game with asymmetric information. Simple assumptions about the structure are made to establish the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. I show that the equilibrium strategies satisfy a network decaying dependence condition requiring that dependence between two players' decisions decay with their network distance, which serves as the basis ...
-
作者：Maggi, Giovanni; Staiger, Robert W.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
摘要：We develop a model of trade agreements with renegotiation and imperfectly verifiable information. In equilibrium, trade disputes can occur and can be resolved in a variety of ways: Governments may settle early or trigger a court ruling, and in the latter case, they may implement the ruling or reach a post-ruling settlement. The model yields predictions on how the dispute outcome depends on the contracting environment and how it correlates with the optimal contract form. We find support for a k...
-
作者：Horioka, Charles Yuji; Gahramanov, Emin; Hayat, Aziz; Tang, Xueli
作者单位：University of Osaka; National Bureau of Economic Research; American University of Sharjah; Deakin University; Deakin University
摘要：We conduct a theoretical and empirical analysis of why children live with (or near) their parents and provide care and assistance to them using microdata from a Japanese household survey, the Osaka University Preference Parameter Study. We find that the Japanese are more likely to live with (or near) their elderly parents and/or to provide care and attention to them if they expect to receive a bequest from them, which constitutes strong support for the strategic bequest motive, but that their ...
-
作者：Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; Sorkin, Isaac; To, Ted
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We document two new findings about the industry-level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty-clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry-level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor-intensive restaurants and entry ...
