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作者：Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：According to conventional wisdom, terms-of-trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models is strikingly different. We estimate country-specific SVARs using data from 38 countries and find that terms-of-trade shocks explain less than 10% of movements in aggregate activity. We th...
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作者：Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan; Mark, Nelson C.; Sul, Donggyu; Wu, Jyh-Lin
作者单位：University of Auckland; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; National Sun Yat Sen University
摘要：Using recently developed model selection procedures, we determine that exchange rate returns are driven by a two-factor model. We identify them as a dollar factor and a euro factor. Exchange rates are thus driven by global, U.S., and euro-zone stochastic discount factors. The identified factors can also be given a risk-based interpretation. Identification motivates multilateral models for bilateral exchange rates. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy of empirically identified multilateral models do...
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作者：Guo, Naijia
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This article evaluates the lifetime welfare and labor market consequences of experiencing a recession during youth, using a directed search equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks. In particular, the model allows for endogenous schooling decisions over the business cycles. The counterfactual analysis shows that experiencing the 1981-82 recession in youth causes a 1.6%-2.3% loss in lifetime welfare. Endogenizing the schooling decision avoids overestimation of welfare lo...
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作者：Holden, Steinar; Natvik, Gisle James; Vigier, Adrien
作者单位：University of Oslo; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro-cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.
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作者：Chatterji, Shurojit; Masso, Jordi
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We consider strategy-proof rules operating on a rich domain of preference profiles. We show that if the rule satisfies in addition tops-onlyness, anonymity, and unanimity, then the preferences in the domain have to satisfy a variant of single-peakedness (referred to as semilattice single-peakedness). We do so by deriving from the rule an endogenous partial order (a semilattice) from which the concept of a semilattice single-peaked preference can be defined. We also provide a converse of this m...
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作者：Iskhakov, Fedor; Rust, John; Schjerning, Bertel
作者单位：Australian National University; Georgetown University; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We extend the classic Bertrand duopoly model of price competition to a dynamic setting where competing duopolists invest in a stochastically improving production technology to leapfrog their rival and attain temporary low-cost leadership. We find a huge multiplicity of Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) and show that when firms move simultaneously the set of all MPE payoffs is a triangle that includes monopoly payoffs and a symmetric zero mixed strategy payoff. When firms move asynchronously, the...
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作者：Sims, Eric; Wolff, Jonathan
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Ohio; Miami University
摘要：This article studies the output and welfare effects of shocks to government spending in a medium-scale DSGE model. Our model considers both government consumption and investment and allows for a variety of fiscal financing mechanisms. We use the model to address several questions pertaining to the magnitude and state dependence of both the output and welfare effects of changes in government spending. Countercyclical government spending is undesirable as a general policy prescription, but we hi...
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作者：Wrona, Jens
作者单位：Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
摘要：This article identifies a border effect in the absence of a border. The finding that trade between east and west Japan is 23.1% to 51.3% lower than trade within both country parts is established despite the absence of an obvious east-west division due to historical borders, cultural differences, or past civil wars. Postwar agglomeration processes, reflected by the contemporaneous structure of Japan's business and social networks, instead of cultural differences, induced by long-lasting histori...
