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作者：Beauchamp, Andrew; Sanzenbacher, Geoffrey; Seitz, Shannon; Skira, Meghan M.
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Wright State University Dayton; Boston College; Analysis Group Inc.; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：Why do some men father children outside of marriage without providing support? Why do some women have children outside of marriage when they receive little support from fathers? Why is this behavior more common among Blacks than Whites? We estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of marriage, employment, fertility, and child support decisions. We consider the extent to which low earnings, marriage market conditions, and preference heterogeneity explain nonmarital childbearing, deadbeat fatherhood,...
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作者：Krasnokutskaya, Elena; Li, Yiyang; Todd, Petra E.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Chile's individual retirement pension accounts system has been a model for many countries. To limit the riskiness of pension investments, Chile required pension fund managers to deliver returns that are not more than 2% below the industry average. We develop and estimate a model of the pension investment market that allows us to study the impact of minimum return regulation. We find that the regulation leads to higher demand for risky investments, creates incentives to offer riskier portfolios...
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作者：Foroni, Claudia; Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Norges Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：We propose a new Vector Autoregressive identification scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate to the two shocks. According to our analysis on United States data over the period 1985-2014, labor supply shocks and wage bargaining shocks are important drivers of output and unemployment both in the short run and in ...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：I examine the role of political instability and fractionalization as potential explanations for the lack of capital flows from rich countries to poor countries (i.e., the Lucas Paradox). Using panel data from 1984 to 2014, I document that (i) developed countries exhibit larger inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), (ii) countries subject to high investment risk (IR) receive low FDI inflows, and (iii) IR is higher in fractionalized and politically unstable economies. These findings suggest...
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作者：Gilboa, Itzhak; Postlewaite, Andrew; Samuelson, Larry; Schmeidler, David
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Tel Aviv University; University of Pennsylvania; Yale University
摘要：We suggest that one way in which economic analysis is useful is by offering a critique of reasoning. According to this view, economic theory may be useful not only by providing predictions, but also by pointing out weaknesses of arguments. It is argued that when a theory requires a nontrivial act of interpretation, its roles in producing predictions and offering critiques vary in a substantial way. We offer a formal model in which these different roles can be captured.
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作者：Weiss, Yoram; Yi, Junjian; Zhang, Junsen
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; National University of Singapore; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This article analyzes cross-border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross-border marriage costs following an increase in marriage-migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross-border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross-border marriage costs...
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作者：Byrne, Joseph P.; Korobilis, Dimitris; Ribeiro, Pinho J.
作者单位：Heriot Watt University; University of Essex; University of Glasgow
摘要：In a unified framework, we examine four sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting models: (i) random variations in the data, (ii) estimation uncertainty, (iii) uncertainty about the degree of time variation in coefficients, and (iv) uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor. We find that models that embed a high degree of coefficient variability yield forecast improvements at horizons beyond one month. At the one-month horizon, and apart from the standard variance implied by ...
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作者：Ko, Chiu Yu; Koyama, Mark; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
作者单位：National University of Singapore; George Mason University
摘要：This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasion...
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作者：Choi, Sekyu; Fernandez-Blanco, Javier
作者单位：University of Bristol; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：This article studies a competitive search model of the labor market with learning about match-specific productivity in which risk-averse workers factor present and future unemployment risks in their search decisions. We examine internally efficient equilibrium allocations in which match termination occurs only if the joint value of a worker-firm pair is negative. Internal efficiency poses a trade-off between present and future risks. Public insurance provision also affects this trade-off and, ...
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作者：Pohl, R. Vincent
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：The Medicaid expansions and health insurance subsidies of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) change work incentives for single mothers. To evaluate the employment effects of these policies ex ante, I estimate a model of labor supply and health insurance choice exploiting variation in pre-ACA Medicaid policies. Simulations show that single mothers increase their labor supply at the extensive and intensive margin by 12% and 7%, respectively, uninsurance rates decline by up to 40%, and an average fami...
