HOW IMPORTANT ARE TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12263
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 85-111
• 关键词: real business cycles; small open-economy; exchange-rate; emerging countries; prices matter; fluctuations; spreads; GOODS

摘要

According to conventional wisdom, terms-of-trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models is strikingly different. We estimate country-specific SVARs using data from 38 countries and find that terms-of-trade shocks explain less than 10% of movements in aggregate activity. We then estimate key structural parameters of a three-sector business-cycle model country by country and find a disconnect between the importance assigned to terms-of-trade shocks by theoretical and SVAR models.