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作者：Fu, Chao; Ishimaru, Shoya; Kennan, John
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hitotsubashi University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We investigate equilibrium impacts of federal policies such as free-college proposals, taking into account that human capital is cumulative and that state governments have resource constraints. In our model, a state government cares about household welfare and aggregate educational attainment. The government chooses income tax rates, per-student expenditures on K-12 and college education, college tuition, and the provision of other public goods. We estimate the model using U.S. data. Our simul...
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作者：Cordoba, Juan-Carlos; Ripoll, Marla; Yang, Siqiang
作者单位：Iowa State University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Nankai University
摘要：2020 official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID-19. This article constructs full recession measures that consider the death toll. Our model features nonexpected utility, leisure, age-specific survival rates, and tractable heterogeneity. We find an average full recession of 10.7%, which reflects the net value of an aggregate drop in consumption of 2.7%, an average increase of 197 leisure hours and about 540,000 lives lost in the first pandemi...
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作者：Parodi, Francesca
作者单位：Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart
摘要：I study the effectiveness of temporary cuts to consumption tax rates as fiscal stimulus instruments during recessions using a structural life-cycle model with multiple consumption categories. I find tax elasticities of 0.4 for nondurable luxuries and of 10.5 for durables. I show that the tax cut on nondurables has an intratemporal substitution effect, whereas the tax cut on durables acts through an intertemporal substitution mechanism that is stronger for high-income, liquidity-unconstrained, ...
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作者：Kim, Jeong Ho (John); Kim, Kyungmin; Pease, Marilyn
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Emory University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：We consider a worker's job search problem in which firms arrive sequentially, observe the worker's unemployment duration, and conduct an interview to learn about her unobservable productivity. Firms engage in fully flexible information acquisition subject to a uniformly posterior-separable cost function. We provide a closed-form characterization of equilibrium job search dynamics and demonstrate that endogenous information amplifies the stigma effect of long unemployment duration relative to e...
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作者：Behrman, Jere R.; Fan, C. Simon; Guo, Naijia; Wei, Xiangdong; Zhang, Hongliang; Zhang, Junsen
作者单位：Zhejiang University; University of Pennsylvania; Lingnan University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：After-school tutoring has risen globally despite limited evidence of effectiveness. We implement a randomized after-school tutoring program in rural China where many children are left-behind by parents in care of grandparents. Compared to tutees cared for by parents, those in care of grandparents reported much smaller home-tutoring reductions but larger test-score gains. We interpret our data analysis with a model with tutoring efficacy and substitution between private and public inputs both d...
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作者：Uchida, Yuki; Ono, Tetsuo
作者单位：Seikei University; University of Osaka; Seikei University
摘要：This study presents an overlapping generations model to analyze the impact of population aging on fiscal policy and intergenerational fiscal burden. Aging populations incentivize governments to increase capital and labor income tax rates and the public debt-to-GDP ratio, consistent with OECD evidence. Our model-based simulation for Japan and the United States (2000-2070) reveals that Japan will experience higher labor income tax rates, a greater public debt-to-GDP ratio, and a lower government...
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作者：Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：We study why Social Security benefit claiming is concentrated at two ages, 62 and the full retirement age, and provide three main findings. First, we show that claiming behavior can be well explained by a parsimonious life-cycle model with fully rational agents. The two key mechanisms are (i) the strong unwillingness to hold annuities and (ii) the effects of the earnings test. Second, we show that current rules distort claiming and labor supply decisions, and eliminating these distortions resu...
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作者：Ueda, Kozo; Watanabe, Kota; Watanabe, Tsutomu
作者单位：Waseda University; University of Tokyo; Waseda University
摘要：This study addresses the large bias in chained price indices that persists even at lower frequencies. The bias arises from intertemporal substitution caused by consumer hoarding, and is problematic for purchase-based data. In order to resolve this issue, we propose a method for calculating changes in inventories and consumption using retailer scanner data. We construct a partial equilibrium model to estimate inventories and consumption and show that the model accurately predicts the sign and s...
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作者：Ma, Xiao
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University
摘要：China has expanded the yearly quota on newly admitted college students by more than seven times since 1999. How did this massive education expansion affect firms' export and innovation choices? I document that after this expansion impacted the labor market, manufacturing firms' innovation increased considerably, especially among exporting firms, accompanied by sizable skill upgrading of exports. I then develop a multi-industry spatial equilibrium model, featuring skill intensity differences ac...
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作者：Atkeson, Andrew G.; Kopecky, Karen A.; Zha, Tao
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a Bayesian method for estimating the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and discover four key findings that expose the limitations of current structural epidemiological models . (i) Death growth rates declined rapidly from high levels during the initial 30 days of the epidemic worldwide. (ii) After this initial period, these rates fluctuated substantially around 0%. (iii) The cross-location standard deviation of death growth rates decreased rapidly in the first 10 days but remained high af...
