THE FULL RECESSION: PRIVATE VERSUS SOCIAL COSTS OF COVID-19

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cordoba, Juan-Carlos; Ripoll, Marla; Yang, Siqiang
• 署名单位: Iowa State University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Nankai University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12667
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 547-582
• 关键词: risk-aversion; consumption; welfare

摘要

2020 official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID-19. This article constructs full recession measures that consider the death toll. Our model features nonexpected utility, leisure, age-specific survival rates, and tractable heterogeneity. We find an average full recession of 10.7%, which reflects the net value of an aggregate drop in consumption of 2.7%, an average increase of 197 leisure hours and about 540,000 lives lost in the first pandemic year. The full recession for a utilitarian planner is 14.5%, which aligns with that of individuals in their late 50s.