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作者：Cantelmo, Alessandro; Fatouros, Nikos; Melina, Giovanni; Papageorgiou, Chris
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund
摘要：With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, what should central banks do in response to these catastrophic events? Looking at IMF reports for 34 disaster-years, which occurred in 16 disaster-prone countries from 1999 to 2017, reveals lack of any systematic approach adopted by monetary authorities in response to climate shocks. Using a small-open-economy New-Keynesian model with disaster shocks, we show that consistent with textbook theory, inflation targeti...
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作者：Fu, Chao; Ishimaru, Shoya; Kennan, John
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hitotsubashi University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We investigate equilibrium impacts of federal policies such as free-college proposals, taking into account that human capital is cumulative and that state governments have resource constraints. In our model, a state government cares about household welfare and aggregate educational attainment. The government chooses income tax rates, per-student expenditures on K-12 and college education, college tuition, and the provision of other public goods. We estimate the model using U.S. data. Our simul...
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作者：Colicev, Anatoli; Hoste, Joris; Konings, Jozef
作者单位：University of Liverpool; University of Cambridge; Nazarbayev University; KU Leuven
摘要：Using retailer scanner data, we investigate how a sharp and abrupt depreciation of the exchange rate affects consumers' cost of living. We find that the marginal cost of imported goods increased, whereas their retail markups decreased compared to domestic products. There was also a surge in the entry and exit of both foreign and local product varieties post-depreciation. Wealthier consumers, who spend more on imports, are hit harder by higher marginal costs but benefit from reduced markups and...
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作者：Baydur, Ismail; Xu, Jianhuan
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Singapore Management University
摘要：This article develops a job-search model with unobserved worker heterogeneity and learning about worker types from unemployment duration. The model features negative duration dependence that stems from unobserved heterogeneity, skill depreciation, and statistical discrimination. We estimate job-finding rates implied by our model using microlevel data from the Current Population Survey. We find that removing interview costs counterfactually, thereby eliminating statistical discrimination, subst...
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作者：Jaccard, Ivan
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank
摘要：The evidence suggests that monetary policy transmission is asymmetric over the business cycle. Interacting financing frictions with a preference for liquidity provides an explanation for this fact. Our model reproduces a set of asset market and business cycle facts. Accounting for the joint dynamics of asset prices and business cycle fluctuations is key; in a variant of the model that is unable to produce realistic macrofinance implications, monetary asymmetries disappear. Resorting to nonline...
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作者：Cho, Yunho; Li, Shuyun May; Uren, Lawrence
作者单位：University of Jinan; University of Melbourne
摘要：This article builds a general equilibrium overlapping generations (OLG) model with heterogeneous agents to study the welfare implications of investment housing tax concessions in Australia. Removing these concessions substantially reduces the landlord rate and the use of debt. There is a steady-state welfare gain equivalent to a 0.13% increase in lifetime consumption if the additional tax revenue from removing the concessions is used to finance a lump-sum transfer to all households. That welfa...
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作者：Keniston, Daniel; Larsen, Bradley J.; Li, Shengwu; Prescott, J. J.; Silveira, Bernardo S.; Yu, Chuan
作者单位：Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL); Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Stanford University; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This article documents a robust pattern from diverse sequential bargaining settings: agents favor offers that split the difference between the previous two offers. Our empirical settings include used cars, insurance claims, home sale, trade tariffs, a TV game show, eBay, and auto-rickshaws. These even-split offers are more likely to be accepted, less likely to spur exit by the opponent, and more likely to be followed by subsequent split-the-difference offers if bargaining continues. We propose...
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作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Foster, Lucia; Ohlmacher, Scott; Saporta-Eksten, Itay
作者单位：Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Tel Aviv University
摘要：A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers' subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed survey measure of uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. We find three key results. First, investment is negatively associated with higher uncertainty. Second, uncertainty is also negatively related to employment growth and overall shipments growth, which hi...
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作者：Lee, Hyunju
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：This article builds a two-country model of gross capital flows where agents share tradable output risk using two bonds, subject to stochastic collateral constraints. Equilibrium portfolios are short in domestic bonds and long in foreign bonds because the endogenous movements of the real exchange rate provide a hedge against domestic output shocks. Under negative domestic shocks, these external positions transfer wealth from home to abroad. During the Great Recession, the model shows that such ...
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作者：Hall, Jonathan D.
作者单位：University of Alabama System; University of Alabama Tuscaloosa
摘要：Structural models of traffic congestion, such as the bottleneck model, are used to answer important, policy-relevant questions. However, existing models typically assume that no travelers are inframarginal regarding when to travel; that is, given equilibrium travel times, no travelers strictly prefer their ex ante departure time to all others. In this article, I address this shortcoming by incorporating inframarginal travelers into these models. This change significantly improves these models'...
