FOUR STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT COVID-19

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Atkeson, Andrew G.; Kopecky, Karen A.; Zha, Tao
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12660
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 3-42
• 关键词: influenza; DYNAMICS

摘要

We develop a Bayesian method for estimating the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and discover four key findings that expose the limitations of current structural epidemiological models . (i) Death growth rates declined rapidly from high levels during the initial 30 days of the epidemic worldwide. (ii) After this initial period, these rates fluctuated substantially around 0%. (iii) The cross-location standard deviation of death growth rates decreased rapidly in the first 10 days but remained high afterward. (iv) These insights apply to both effective reproduction numbers and their cross-location variability through epidemiological models. Our method is applicable to studying other epidemics.