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作者：Grunewald, Andreas; Kluemper, Andreas; Kraekel, Matthias
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management; University of Bonn; University of Bonn
摘要：This article studies information manipulation during a democratic election. In our model, candidates manipulate public signals about their welfare impact, and a fraction of the electorate naively ignores manipulation. We derive three main findings. First, information manipulation is detrimental to candidate selection and aggravates the dispersion of political attitudes. Second, both educating voters and creating institutions to eliminate false information may involve a trade-off between improv...
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作者：Di Nola, Alessandro; Kocharkov, Georgi; Scholl, Almuth; Tkhir, Anna-Mariia; Wang, Haomin
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Konstanz; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Allianz SE; Cardiff University
摘要：We examine the aggregate and distributional effects of raising the top marginal income tax rate in the presence of entrepreneurial tax avoidance. In a model with heterogeneous agents and occupational choice, entrepreneurs can avoid taxes by choosing the legal form of business organization and shifting income across tax bases. Applied to the U.S. economy, we find that tax avoidance weakens the distortionary effects of higher income taxes at the top but makes them ineffective at lowering inequal...
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作者：Bastani, Spencer; Blumkin, Tomer; Micheletto, Luca
作者单位：Uppsala University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; University of Milan
摘要：We develop a theory of optimal income and education taxation under asymmetric information between firms and workers. Our results show that a max-min optimal tax code can achieve predistribution by pooling wages across ability levels, conditional on income. We identify conditions under which the optimal solution leads to pooling or separating equilibria, highlighting bidirectional incentive constraints. Implementation requires nonlinear income taxes coupled with education subsidies or mandates....
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作者：Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem; Yazici, Hakki
作者单位：Sabanci University; University of Bristol
摘要：We analyze the implications of the decline in labor's share in national income for optimal Ramsey taxation. It is optimal to accompany the decline in labor share by raising capital taxes only if the labor share is falling because of a decline in competition or other mechanisms that raise the share of pure profits. This result holds under various alternative institutional arrangements that are relevant for optimal taxation of capital income. A quantitative application to the US economy shows th...
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作者：Chernis, Tony; Hauzenberger, Niko; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Mitchell, James
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Strathclyde; Salzburg University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Based on agent opinion analysis theory, Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a framework for combining predictive distributions in the face of model uncertainty. In this article, we generalize existing parametric implementations of BPS by showing how to combine competing probabilistic forecasts using interpretable Bayesian tree-based machine learning methods. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach-in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability-via two macroeconomic foreca...
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作者：Dong, Feng; Zhou, Fei
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Hong Kong Baptist University
摘要：What is the role of production networks in inducing self-fulfilling business cycles? We construct a multisector business cycle model that features both input-output linkages and credit constraints. Our theoretical framework demonstrates that a single aggregate financial multiplier is sufficient to characterize equilibrium determinacy, which hinges on the network structure. By quantitatively assessing the possibility of indeterminate equilibria in the United States from 2000 to 2020, we discove...
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作者：Chen, Yi-Chun; Hu, Gaoji; Yang, Xiangqian
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Hunan University
摘要：We study information design in a single-agent allocation problem with costly verification, where the principal has a positive reservation value. The agent learns privately a signal about the principal's allocation value, drawn from a distribution controlled by an information designer. Given the signal distribution, the principal designs a mechanism to maximize her net value. We show that the agent-optimal information pools high values at a signal just worth verification, whereas the principal-...
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作者：Calabrese, Stephen; Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard
作者单位：University of Sussex; Carnegie Mellon University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Beginning in the 1970s, many state courts declared the widespread inequality in education spending across schools a violation of their state's constitution. Funding systems then emerged providing differing approaches to state and local support of education. We develop a theoretical framework and characterize outcomes under alternative systems. Our framework has voting over policies in both state and local elections. A counterpart computational model compares equilibrium outcomes under the alte...
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作者：Li, Wenli; Meghir, Costas; Oswald, Florian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Turin
摘要：We specify and estimate a life-cycle model of consumption, housing demand, and labor supply in an environment where individuals can file for bankruptcy and/or default on their mortgages in the presence of house price shock, income shock, and catastrophic expenditure events. A key feature of the model is that individuals differ by education, which dictates their income process and preference. We estimate the model using data on credit reports and mortgages combined with Census data. Our model d...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Ju, Gaosheng; Li, Qi
作者单位：Yale University; Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：This paper introduces a new location-scale quantile regression model aimed at examining the effects of macroeconomic variables on the distribution of microeconomic outcomes using repeated cross-sectional data. The model can be converted into an equivalent mean regression, enabling quantile coefficient estimation through least squares. This transformation improves computational efficiency, simplifies statistical inference for large data sets, and maintains robustness against model misspecificat...
