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作者：Glazer, Jacob; Rubinstein, Ariel
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of Warwick; Tel Aviv University; New York University
摘要：Subjects were asked to predict the choice made by a hypothetical individual, based on a small sample of his past choices in identical situations. Each of the alternatives facing the individual has a number of components. When the data is presented explicitly as a distribution of past choices, most subjects use the holistic procedure according to which the prediction is the most common choice made in the past. Nevertheless, a significant minority of subjects use atomistic procedures, which rela...
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作者：Williamson, Stephen
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Narrow banking has surfaced frequently as a proposed framework for dealing with financial instability and inefficiency. Recent proposals include reforms intended to improve the implementation of monetary policy, and to deal with perceived problems related to stablecoins. A model is constructed in which banks must deal with three frictions: limited commitment, moral hazard with respect to risky assets, and potential misrepresentation of safe assets. Surprisingly, deposit insurance does not enge...
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作者：Chen, Heng; Li, Xu; Pei, Guangyu; Xin, Qian
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Harbin Institute of Technology
摘要：Using firm-level earnings forecasts and managerial guidance data, we construct guidance surprises for analysts, i.e., differences between managerial guidance and analysts' initial forecasts. We document new evidence on expectation formation: (i) analysts overreact to managerial guidance and the overreaction is state-dependent, i.e., it is stronger for negative guidance surprises but weaker for surprises that are larger in size; and (ii) forecast revisions are neither symmetric in guidance surp...
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作者：Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo; Eichenbaum, Martin; Guerreiro, Joao
作者单位：Pacific Investment Management Company, LLC; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper addresses the question: how sensitive is the power of fiscal policy at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) to the assumption of rational expectations? We do so through the lens of a standard New Keynesian model in which people are dynamic level-k thinkers. Our analysis weakens the case for using government spending to stabilize the economy when the ZLB binds. The less sophisticated people are, the smaller the government -spending multiplier is. Our analysis strengthens the case for using tax...
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作者：Perla, Jesse; Pflueger, Carolin; Szkup, Michal
作者单位：University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study how frictions originating from limited liability distort firms' investment and financing choices. By financing new investments with debt, firms can use limited liability to credibly commit to defaulting earlier-allowing both firm owners and new creditors to benefit from diluting existing creditors. In a dynamic setup, this leads to time-inconsistency, increasing the cost of external funds and discouraging investment. We show that the interaction of these two forces leads to heterogene...
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作者：Nebel, Jacob M.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Welfarism is the view that individual welfare is the only thing that matters. One important contribution of social choice theory has been to provide a precise formulation and axiomatic characterization of welfarism using Amartya Sen's framework of social welfare functionals. This paper is motivated by the observation that the standard formalization of welfarism is too restrictive, since a welfarist social planner need not be committed to maximizing a preference ordering or any other binary rel...
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作者：Tan, Guofu; Zhou, Junjie
作者单位：University of Southern California; Tsinghua University
摘要：Motivated by several recent studies on oligopolistic markets with consumer heterogeneity, we characterize the geometric properties of a class of inequalities involving the product of two integrals of the probability density quantile function and its reciprocal. Through three applications, we illustrate how our characterization can help enrich our understanding of the existing findings and shed some new insights, regarding the extent to which consumer welfare and social efficiency depend on the...
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作者：Mertikopoulos, Panayotis; Sandholm, William H.
作者单位：Inria; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We consider a model of learning and evolution in games whose action sets are endowed with a partition-based similarity structure intended to capture exogenous similarities between strategies. In this model, revising agents have a higher probability of comparing their current strategy with other strategies that they deem similar, and they switch to the observed strategy with probability proportional to its payoff excess. Because of this implicit bias toward similar strategies, the resulting dyn...
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作者：Abraham, Arpad; Laczo, Sarolta
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：This paper extends the model of risk sharing with limited commitment to feature separation. Partners face idiosyncratic income and match quality shocks, share risk subject to limited commitment, and separate whenever they are better off doing so. We characterise analytically the sets of shock realisations where constrained-efficient separations occur and the dynamics of consumption while the risk-sharing partnership continues. The separation probability typically jumps as parameter values chan...
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作者：Madison, Florian
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; University of Basel
摘要：This paper develops a search-theoretic, two-country, dual-currency model featuring endogenous currency substitution with costly authentication of foreign currency. Benevolent governments, unable to commit to future policies, determine fiscal and monetary policy weighing distortion- smoothing and time-consistency. Decisions of the fiscal authority are accommodated by the monetary authority, where public expenditures, public debt, labor taxation, and inflation are determined using the notion of ...
