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作者：Bonfatti, Roberto
作者单位：University of Nottingham
摘要：I construct a model in which a colony trades raw materials for manufactures with the mother country and the rest of the world, and can rebel at the cost of some trade disruption with the mother country. Decolonisation is more likely when the rest of the world is more abundant in manufactures, or scarcer in raw materials: this is because trade policy in the rest of the world is more favourable to a rebel colony, while trade policy within the empire is more restrictive. I use my results to expla...
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作者：Broocks, Annette; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：For small open economies, it is essential that many firms find their way to the export market and most governments provide some form of export promotion assistance. We use detailed firm-level data for Flanders, the largest region in Belgium, to evaluate whether its program raises firms' propensity to start exporting outside the EU single market. We find robust evidence for such an effect by relying on the selection-on-observables assumption which we implement using various estimators. We addre...
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作者：Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Nino weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Nino shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Nino weather events over time, and their i...
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作者：Del Prete, Davide; Rungi, Armando
作者单位：IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
摘要：In this paper, we study the organization of Global Value Chains on a sample of about 4000 manufacturing parent companies integrating more than 90,000 affiliates in 150 countries. Assuming a technological sequence of production stages, a recent property rights framework (Antras and Chor, 2013; Alfaro et al., 2015) predicts that vertical integration decisions are crucially based on both the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final-...
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作者：Chamon, Marcos; Garcia, Marcin; Souza, Laura
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：In the aftermath of the taper tantrum, the Central Bank of Brazil announced a major program of sterilized foreign exchange intervention. We use a synthetic control approach to estimate its impact on the level and volatility of the exchange rate. Our counterfactual results, based on the experience of other emerging markets, indicate the program led to an appreciation of the Brazilian real in excess of 10%. Some of our estimates also point to a decline in the option-implied volatility. A second ...
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作者：French, Scott
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：This paper applies a widely-used class of quantitative trade models to evaluate the usefulness of measures of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in academic and policy analyses. I find that, while commonly-used indexes are generally not consistent with theoretical notions of comparative advantage, certain indexes can be usefully employed for certain tasks. I explore several common uses of RCA indexes and show that different indexes are appropriate when attempting to (a) uncover countries' fu...
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作者：Saia, Alessandro
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：In this paper we provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and its main trading partners if the UK had joined the euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation, we employ the synthetic control method. We show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and eurozone members would have been 16% higher if the UK had adopted the euro. We also provide an estimate of the (hypothetical) euro's effect on trade flows between the U...
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作者：Danziger, Eliav
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：I develop and calibrate a dynamic general-equilibrium trade model with endogenous skill demand and supply. Simulations show that removing US trade barriers would lead to aggregate gains in the United States of 4.5%. Individual workers' gains, however, depend on their education, age and birth cohort. The biggest winners, the oldest educated workers alive during trade liberalization, gain 6.7%, while their uneducated peers gain the least, only 1.2%. A major finding is that ignoring either the en...
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作者：Beverelli, Cosimo; Fiorini, Matteo; Hoekman, Bernard
作者单位：World Trade Organization; European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the effect of services trade restrictions on manufacturing productivity for a broad cross-section of countries at different stages of economic development. Decreasing services trade restrictiveness has a positive impact on the manufacturing sectors that use services as intermediate inputs in production. We identify a critical role of institutions in importing countries in shaping this effect. Countries with high institutional quality benefit the most from lower services trade restrict...
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作者：Chen, Bo; Yu, Miaojie; Yu, Zhihao
作者单位：Huazhong University of Science & Technology; Peking University; Carleton University
摘要：Using Chinese firm-level production data, this paper developed a Mincer (1974)-type approach to investigate the impact of input trade liberalization on firms' wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers (or skill premium). When controlling for product-market tariffs in a firm's industry, we find robust evidence that reduced input tariffs in a firm's industry are associated with a higher skill premium at firms with more skilled workforces. This effect is more pronounced at ordinary (n...
