Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Nino

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 37-54
• 关键词: El Nino weather shocks; Oil and non-fuel commodity prices; Global macroeconometric modelling; International business cycle

摘要

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Nino weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Nino shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Nino weather events over time, and their impact on different regions cross-sectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Nino shocks (direct and total) on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable hetero-geneities in the responses of different countries to El Nino shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Nifio shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Nifio occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Nifio weather episodes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.