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作者：Evans, Martin D. D.
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：I present a new model for the U.S. external position that accounts for the accumulation of international debt over the past 60 years. The model is based on the present value restriction that links a country's external position to future trade flows and financial conditions in the absence of arbitrage opportunities and Ponzi schemes. It features the role played by the stochastic discount factor, the trade and valuation adjustment channels and provides a decomposition of the U.S. external positi...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Onder, Yasin Kursat
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We quantify gains from introducing limited financing through non-defaultable debt into a model of equilibrium sovereign risk. For an initial sovereign spread of 4.2%, introducing the possibility of issuing non-defaultable debt for up to 10% of aggregate income reduces immediately the spread to 1.5%, and implies a welfare gain equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of 0.8%. Nevertheless, the spread reduction achieved by the introduction of non-defaultable debt is short lived. Our findin...
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作者：Holloway, Isaac R.
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); University Western Ontario Hospital
摘要：Most U.S. movies are not distributed simultaneously to all of their foreign markets and many do not recoup the costs of market entry. In theory, sequential entry allows distributors to learn about their movies' quality from performance in successive markets. I find empirical evidence consistent with recent trade models of learning about export profitability: a one-standard-deviation increase in the update to expected box-office revenues from the previous round is associated with an increase in...
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作者：Grossmann, Volker; Schafer, Andreas; Steger, Thomas; Fuchs, Benjamin
作者单位：University of Fribourg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; University College London; University of Fribourg; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leipzig University; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); University Hohenheim
摘要：We investigate the dynamic effects of interregional labor market integration on migration flows, capital formation, and the price for housing services. The co-evolution of these variables depends on initial conditions at the time of labor market integration. In an initially capital-poor economy, there may be a reversal of migration flows during the transition to the steady state, while housing costs are increasing over time. Although capital may accumulate while labor emigrates early in the tr...
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作者：Erbahar, Aksel; Zi, Yuan
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute; University of Oslo
摘要：In a world with increasingly integrated global supply chains, trade policy targeting upstream products has unintended consequences on their downstream industries. In this paper, we examine whether protection granted to intermediate manufacturers leads to petition for protection by their downstream users. We first provide a simple Model based on the quantitative framework of Ossa (2014) which identifies the key factors and their interactions that cause cascading protection to motivate our empir...
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作者：Fujiwara, Ippei; Wang, Jiao
作者单位：Keio University; Australian National University; University of Melbourne
摘要：This paper revisits optimal monetary policy in open economies, in particular, focusing on the noncooperative policy game under local currency pricing in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We first derive the quadratic loss functions which noncooperative policy makers aim to minimize. Then, we show that noncooperative policy makers face extra trade-offs regarding stabilizing real marginal costs induced by deviations from the law of one price under local currency pricing...
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作者：Niepmann, Friederike; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：International trade exposes exporters and importers to substantial risks. To mitigate these risks, firms can buy special trade finance products from banks. Based on unique data with global coverage, this paper explores under which conditions and to what extent firms use these products. 15% or $2.5 trillion of world exports are settled with letters of credit and documentary collections. Letters of credit are employed the most for exports to countries with intermediate contract enforcement, and ...
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作者：Behzadan, Nazanin; Chisik, Richard; Onder, Harun; Battaile, Bill
作者单位：Toronto Metropolitan University; Toronto Metropolitan University; The World Bank; The World Bank
摘要：In this paper we show that the Dutch disease can arise solely from inequality in the distribution of natural resource rents. Given two otherwise identical countries that differ only in the ownership shares of the natural resource rents, the country with the less equal distribution will have less production of manufacturing goods and less development of learning-by-doing in this sector. As opposed to conventional models, where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal d...
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作者：Dedolaa, Luca; Rivolta, Giulia; Stracca, Livio
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of Brescia
摘要：This paper studies the international spillovers of US monetary policy shocks on a number of macroeconomic and financial variables in 36 advanced and emerging economies. In most countries, a surprise US monetary tightening leads to depreciation against the dollar; industrial production and real GDP fall, unemployment rises. Inflation declines especially in advanced economies. At the same time, there is significant heterogeneity across countries in the response of asset prices, and portfolio and...
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作者：Dai, Mi; Xu, Jianwei
作者单位：Beijing Normal University
摘要：This paper examines how exchange rate shocks affect intra-industry labor reallocation across firms. Using comprehensive Chinese firm-level data, we examine the employment response to exchange rates of firms that are heterogeneous along two dimensions: external orientation and trading partner distribution. Firm specific effective exchange rates are constructed to accurately measure exchange rate shocks pertinent to individual firms. We find that exchange rate movements induce significant labor ...
