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作者：Antras, Pol; de Gortari, Alonso; Itskhoki, Oleg
作者单位：Harvard University; Princeton University
摘要：This paper studies the welfare implications of trade opening in a world in which trade raises aggregate income but also increases income inequality, and in which redistribution needs to occur via a distortionary income tax-transfer system. We provide tools to characterize and quantify the effects of trade opening on the distribution of disposable income (after redistribution). We propose two adjustments to standard measures of the welfare gains from trade: a 'welfarist' correction inspired by ...
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作者：Kulish, Mariano; Rees, Daniel M.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Reserve Bank of Australia
摘要：The development of Asia exposed commodity-exporting economies to unprecedented changes in their terms of trade. Using a small open economy model we estimate changes in the long-run level and variance of Australia's terms of trade and study the quantitative implications of these changes. An innovation of our analysis is to account in estimation for structural changes in the terms of trade. We find that long-run commodity prices increased by 35% in mid-2003 and that the volatility of shocks to c...
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作者：Catao, Luis A. V.; Mano, Rui C.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature has found that sovereigns with a history of default are charged only a small and/or short-lived premium on the interest rate warranted by observable fundamentals. We re-assess this view using a metric of such a default premium (DP) that nests previous metrics and applying it to a much broader dataset. We find a sizeable and persistent DP: in 1870-1938, it averaged 250bps upon market re-entry, tapering to around 150bps five years out; in 1970-2014 the respective estimates are abo...
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作者：Blanchard, Emily J.; Olney, William W.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Williams College
摘要：Human capital is among the most important drivers of long-run economic growth, but its macroeconomic determinants are still not well understood. This paper demonstrates the importance of a key demand-side driver of education, usingexogenously-driven changes in the composition of a country's exports as a lens to study how shifting patterns of production influence subsequent educational attainment. Using a panel of 102 countries and 45 years, we find that growth in less skill-intensive exports d...
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作者：Pennings, Steven
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper shows that in theory and BLS microdata, the prices of imported goods respond to the exchange rates (ER) of the producer's foreign competitors. In contrast, standard models have no role for competitors' ERs. Excluding the effects of competitors' exchange rates typically biases upwards estimates of bilateral exchange rate pass-through because competitors' ERs and bilateral ERs are positively correlated. A multi country version of Atkeson and Burstein's (2008) industry aggregation mode...
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作者：Choi, Woon Gyu; Kang, Taesu; Kim, Geun-Young; Lee, Byongju
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Bank of Korea; Bank of Korea
摘要：This paper analyzes the transmission of global liquidity (GL) from advanced economies (AEs) to emerging market economies (EMEs). We distill GL momenta from the macro-financial data of AEs through a factor model and identify them with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk averseness factors. Using a panel factor-augmented VAR analysis, we then investigate EME responses to shocks to GL momenta. A positive shock to policy-driven liquidity boosts growth in EMEs, elevating sto...
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作者：Epifani, Paolo; Gancia, Gino
作者单位：University of Nottingham Ningbo China; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study the welfare effects of trade imbalances in a two-sector model of monopolistic competition. As in perfect competition, a trade surplus involves an income transfer to the deficit country and possibly a terms-of-trade deterioration. Unlike the conventional wisdom, however, trade imbalances do not impose any double burden on surplus countries. This is because of a production-delocation effect, which leads to a reduction in the local price index. In the presence of intermediate goods, new ...
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作者：Fernandez, Andres; Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：SVAR models that include a single world price (such as the terms-of-trade) predict that world shocks explain a small fraction of movements in domestic output (typically less than 10%). This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33% of output fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estima...
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作者：Bai, Xue; Krishna, Kala; Ma, Hong
作者单位：Brock University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Tsinghua University
摘要：This paper shows that how firms export (directly or indirectly via intermediaries) matters. We develop and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model that allows learning-by-exporting on the cost and demand side as well as sunk/fixed costs to differ by export mode. We find that demand and productivity evolve more favorably under direct exporting, though the fixed sunk costs of this option are higher. Our results suggest that had China not liberalized its direct trading rights when it joined the ...
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作者：Ito, Takatoshi; Yamada, Masahiro
作者单位：Columbia University; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：Fixing in the foreign exchange market determines the mid-point exchange rate that is applied to spot foreign exchange transactions between banks and bank customers. The paper analyzed the Tokyo fixing practices, which allow each bank to announce the fixing rate based on the interbank exchange rate transactions at 9:55 a.m. Based on volumes of customer orders, submitted for transaction at the fixing price, banks submit orders to the interbank market at the fixing time window. Three puzzles rega...
