-
作者：Ben Zeev, Nadav
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
摘要：The recent global financial crisis has resuscitated the debate on the relevance of capital controls as effective policy instruments. This paper contributes to this debate by studying the shock-absorbing capacity of capital controls. Using a recently developed capital control dataset for a panel of 33 emerging market economies, I show that output in economies with stricter capital inflow controls responds significantly less to global credit supply shocks, whereas capital outflow controls have n...
-
作者：Du, Yingxin; Ju, Jiandong; Ramirez, Carlos D.; Yao, Xi
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Tsinghua University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; George Mason University; Peking University
摘要：An extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual (or quarterly) data. We argue that the use of low-frequency data introduces an aggregation bias because the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter (measured in weeks). Using monthly data from 1990 through 2013 for China, we estimate a model of political relations and conclude that political shocks are short-lived. Narrative evidence from two case studies...
-
作者：Toan Phan
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine
摘要：This paper develops a theory of sovereign borrowing, where the interaction between the asymmetry of information and the lack of commitment for repayment leads to a novel signaling motive for the issuance of sovereign debt. If the government is more informed than foreign investors about a fundamental of the domestic economy, then debt provides the government an option to credibly signal good news in the future by repaying. Thus, the government has an incentive to issue debt, even in the absence...
-
作者：Buzard, Kristy
作者单位：Syracuse University
摘要：In an environment where international trade agreements must be enforced via promises of future cooperation, the presence of an import-competing lobby has important implications for optimal punishments. When lobbies work to disrupt trade agreements, a Nash reversion punishment scheme must balance two conflicting objectives. Longer punishments help to enforce cooperation by increasing the government's costs of defecting, but, because the lobby prefers the punishment outcome, this also incentiviz...
-
作者：Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：New York University
摘要：This paper studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government's willingness to repay. Under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower's true default risk and the default risk priced in debt, and its size differs with the maturity of debt. Safe borrowers tilt their debt maturity towards short-term - relative to the optimal choice under perfect information - since long-term debt pools more default risk that is not inherent to them...
-
作者：Temple, Jonathan; Van de Sijpe, Nicolas
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Sheffield
摘要：This paper introduces a new 'supply-push' instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption, investment, imports and exports to GDP. We cannot reject the hypothesis that aid is fully absorbed rather than used to build foreign reserves or exiting as capital flight, nor do we find evidence of Dutch D...
-
作者：Alberola, Enrique; Benigno, Gianluca
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run implications on the sectoral allocation of labor. If dynamic productivity gains are concentrated in the traded good sector, the commodity boom crowds out the traded sector and delays convergence to the world tech...
-
作者：Swiecki, Tomasz
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Howlarge are the welfare gains from trade when factors are misallocated due to domestic distortions? In this paper I provide a theoretical and a quantitative answer to this question by incorporating distortions to the allocation of labor across sectors into a Ricardian trade model. Applying the model to data for a diverse set of countries I find that (1) gains from trade for net exporters in sectors with low marginal product of labor are overstated in models that abstract from intersectoral di...
-
作者：Alfaro, Laura; Chari, Anusha; Kanczuk, Fabio
作者单位：Harvard University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Universidade de Sao Paulo
摘要：This paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm-level stock returns and real investment using data from Brazil. On average, there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external-finance-dependent firms, and capital controls on equity inflows have a more neg...
-
作者：Boileau, Martin; Normandin, Michel
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：We study the role played by fluctuations in the price of imported capital in determining the behavior of consumption fluctuations in developing countries. For this, we decompose the price of imported capital into common and country-specific components, where the common component is the price of capital in the US. Empirically, we document that, in contrast to small industrialized countries, consumption in developing countries responds more than output to unexpected changes in the price of capit...
