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作者：Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jorgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert
作者单位：Tilburg University; University of Copenhagen; University of Vienna
摘要：We investigate the law of small numbers using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the gambler's fallacy, and bet more on a number if it was...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn
摘要：Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policy. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper examines the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries from 1870 to 2012....
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作者：Martimort, David; Sand-Zantman, Wilfried
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; ESSEC Business School
摘要：We take a mechanism design perspective to investigate how environmental agreements should account for multilateral externalities, incentive compatibility, and voluntary participation by sovereign countries. The optimal mechanism involves a tradeoff between a free rider problem in the effort provision of participating countries and the necessity of inducing countries to ratify the agreement. This mechanism can be approximated by a simple menuwith attractive implementation and robustness propert...
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作者：Pagel, Michaela
摘要：This paper explores the quantitative asset-pricing implications of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin (2009, American Economic Review, 99(3), 909-936), in an otherwise traditional Lucas-tree model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations-based loss aversion makes...
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作者：Persson, Petra; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
作者单位：Stanford University; Paris School of Economics
摘要：Performance-based promotion schemes in administrative hierarchies have limitations. Chinese provincial leaders, despite facing strong career concerns, make different policy decisions depending on their career backgrounds. Provincial party secretaries who have risen from low to high positions within the province they govern (locals) spend a higher share of budgetary resources on education and health care and invest less in construction infrastructure than party secretaries who have made their m...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo
摘要：A large body of literature has emphasized the elite capture of democratic institutions as the explanation for the low levels of spending on public education in many low-income democracies. This paper provides an alternative to that longstanding hypothesis. Motivated by new cross-country facts and evidence from Brazilian municipalities, we hypothesize that many democratic developing countries might invest less in public education spending because poor decisive voters prefer the government to al...
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作者：Brutti, Filippo; Saure, Philip
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long-standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross-border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public ...
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作者：Muller, Andreas; Storesletten, Kjetil; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Oslo; University of Zurich
摘要：We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model that yields testable implications about the fiscal policy run by governments of different political color. Successive generations of voters choose taxation, expenditure, and government debt through repeated elections. Voters are heterogeneous by age and by the intensity of their preferences for public good provision. The political equilibrium switches stochastically between left- (pro-public goods) and right-leaning (pro-private consumption) gover...
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作者：Bick, Alexander
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：I document that the labor force participation rate of West German mothers with children aged zero to two exceeds the corresponding child-care enrollment rate, while the opposite is true for mothers whose children are older than two but below the mandatory schooling age. These facts also hold for a cross-section of E.U. countries. I develop a life-cycle model that explicitly accounts for this age-dependent relationship by including various types of nonpaid and paid child care. I calibrate this ...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Zhu, Junyi
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We show that unexpected price-level movements generate sizable wealth redistribution in the Euro Area (EA), using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA as a whole is a net loser of unexpected price-level decreases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain losing most in per capita terms, and Belgium and Malta being net winners. Governments are net losers of deflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net winner in the EA as a wh...
