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作者：Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca
作者单位：University of Cambridge; European Central Bank
摘要：We study the conditions under which unconventional (balance sheet) monetary policy can rule out self-fulfilling sovereign default in a model with optimizing but discretionary fiscal and monetary policymakers. When purchasing sovereign debt, the central bank effectively swaps risky government paper for monetary liabilities only exposed to inflation risk, thus yielding a lower interest rate. As central bank purchases reduce the (ex ante) costs of debt, we characterize a critical threshold beyond...
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作者：Battaglini, Marco; Coate, Stephen
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment. The underlying economy is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and increases in public production. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. Policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts. With the available policies, it is possible for the government to completely eliminate unempl...
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作者：Akcigit, Ufuk; Liu, Qingmin
作者单位：University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：Innovation is typically a trial-and-error process. While some research paths lead to the innovation sought, others result in dead ends. Because firms benefit from their competitors working in the wrong direction, they do not reveal their dead-end findings. Time and resources are wasted on projects that other firms have already found to be fruitless. We offer a simple model with two firms and two research lines to study this prevalent problem. We characterize the equilibrium in a decentralized ...
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作者：Bauernschuster, Stefan; Hener, Timo; Rainer, Helmut
作者单位：University of Passau; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：What role does affordable and widely available public child care play for fertility? We exploit a major German reform generating large temporal and spatial variation in child care coverage for children under the age of three. Our precise and robust estimates on birth register data reveal that increases in public child care have significant positive effects on fertility. The fertility effects are more pronounced at the intensive than at the extensive margin, and are not driven by changes in the...
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作者：Harstad, Bard
作者单位：University of Oslo
摘要：This paper analyzes a framework in which countries over time pollute and invest in green technologies. Without a climate treaty, the countries pollute too much and invest too little, particularly if intellectual property rights are weak. Nevertheless, short-term agreements on emission levels then reduce every country's payoff, since countries invest less when they anticipate future negotiations. If intellectual property rights are weak, the agreement should be tougher and more long-term. Conve...
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作者：Benjamin, Daniel J.; Rabin, Matthew; Raymond, Collin
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Southern California; Harvard University; University of Oxford
摘要：People believe that, even in very large samples, proportions of binary signals might depart significantly from the population mean. We model this nonbelief in the Law of Large Numbers by assuming that a person believes that proportions in any given sample might be determined by a rate different than the true rate. In prediction, a nonbeliever expects the distribution of signals will have fat tails. In inference, a nonbeliever remains uncertain and influenced by priors even after observing an a...
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作者：Andersson, Ola; Holm, Hakan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert; Wengstrom, Erik
作者单位：Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Lund University; University of Copenhagen; University of Vienna
摘要：Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation may be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our results suggest that cognitive abilit...
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作者：Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by expectations of future profits (i.e., fundamental collateral), but instead by expectations of future credit (i.e., bubbly collateral). Credit bubbles raise the availability of credit for entrepreneurs: this ...
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作者：Sun, Stephen (Teng); Yannelis, Constantine
作者单位：Peking University; Stanford University
摘要：In insurance markets, the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured, leading insurance companies to charge higher premia. Using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that introduces exogenous variation in the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in California, we find that uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia: a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises premia by roughly1%. We calculate the monetary fine on the u...
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作者：Brandt, Loren; Siow, Aloysius; Vogel, Carl
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced a drastic famine. The famine substantially reduced birth rates and also adversely affected the health of these famine-born cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine-affected cohorts in rural Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced-form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects. The paper uses the Choo-Siow model to decompose observed marital outc...
