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作者：Levy, Matthew; Tasoff, Joshua
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University
摘要：Exponential- growth bias (EGB) is the tendency for individuals to partially neglect compounding of exponential growth. We develop a model wherein biased agents misperceive the intertemporal budget constraint, and derive conditions for overconsumption and dynamic inconsistency. We construct an incentivized measure of EGB in a US-representative population and find substantial bias, with approximately one third of subjects estimated as the fully biased type. The magnitude of the bias is negativel...
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作者：Hale, Galina; Obstfeld, Maurice
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments...
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作者：Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Munich
摘要：This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920-1939, focusing on the defaults on official (government to government) debt in advanced economies after World War I; and 1978-2010, focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors. Debt relief was substantial in both eras, averaging 21% of GDP in the 1930s and 16% of GDP in recent decades. We then analyze the...
