PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT-HAND FALLACY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jorgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert
• 署名单位: Tilburg University; University of Copenhagen; University of Vienna
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12147
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 584-607
• 关键词: market; returns; performance; persistence; basketball; EFFICIENCY; SEQUENCES; events

摘要

We investigate the law of small numbers using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the gambler's fallacy, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the hot-hand fallacy.