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作者：Andersson, David; Karadja, Mounir; Prawitz, Erik
作者单位：Uppsala University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：This paper studies the effect of emigration on technological change in sending locations after one of the largest migration events in human history, the mass migration from Europe to the United States in the 19th century. To establish causality, we adopt an instrumental variable strategy that combines local growing-season frost shocks with proximity to emigration ports. Using data on patents, we find that emigration led to an increase in innovative activity in sending localities. Using data on...
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作者：Mueller, Hannes; Rauh, Christopher
作者单位：Barcelona School of Economics; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); University of Cambridge
摘要：In this article, we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using a topic model. The topics are then fed into a random forest to predict conflict risk, whi...
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作者：Beg, Sabrin
作者单位：University of Delaware
摘要：I test the land and labor market effects of a property rights reform that computerized rural land records in Pakistan, making digitized records and automated transactions accessible to agricultural landowners and cultivators. Using the staggered roll-out of the program, I find that while the reform does not shift land ownership, landowning households are more likely to rent out land and shift into non-agricultural occupations. At the same time, cultivating households have access to more land, ...
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作者：Martinez-Bravo, Monica; Stegmann, Andreas
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：In July 2011, the Pakistani public learnt that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had used a vaccination campaign as cover to capture Osama Bin Laden. The Taliban leveraged on this information and launched an anti-vaccine propaganda campaign to discredit vaccines and vaccination workers. We evaluate the effects of these events on immunization by implementing a difference-in-differences strategy across cohorts and districts. We find that vaccination rates declined between 23% and 39% in dist...
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作者：Lewis, Logan T.; Monarch, Ryan; Sposi, Michael; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Southern Methodist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 55% of world expenditure in 1970 to 75% in 2015. Using a Ricardian trade model incorporating endogenous structural change, we quantify how this substantial shift in consumption has affected trade. Without structural change, we find that the world trade to GDP ratio would be 13 percentage points higher by 2015, about half the boost delivered from declining trade costs. In addition, a world without structural change would have had about 40% g...
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作者：Coviello, Decio; Deserranno, Erika; Persico, Nicola
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Northwestern University
摘要：We examine how workers reacted to a pay cut in a sales call center setting in the United States. The pay cut was implemented by raising two pre-existing sales targets, that is, by moving the goalposts. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we show that among the workers who experienced the pay cut, some chose to leave the firm (exit); others generated abnormally high customer refunds, in a way that hurt both them and the firm. (We define this work practice as counterproductive.) The firm ...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Storeygard, Adam
作者单位：George Washington University; Tufts University
摘要：Previous work on transportation investments has focused on average impacts in high- and middle-income countries. We estimate average and heterogeneous effects in a poor continent, Africa, using roads and cities data spanning 50 years in 39 countries. Using changes in market access due to distant road construction as a source of exogenous variation, we estimate a 30-year elasticity of city population with respect to market access of about 0.08-0.13. Our results suggest that this elasticity is s...
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作者：Zhuang, Maiting
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：I study how local Chinese newspapers report on the national anti-corruption campaign by collecting a large-scale dataset of newspaper articles, internet searches, and comments on social media. Despite greater reader interest, local newspapers underreport, and deemphasise corruption scandals involving high-level officials from their own province. Underreporting is greater when a corrupt official is well connected, and a newspaper does not rely on advertising revenue. City-level newspapers repor...
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作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Laeven, Luc; Moreno, David
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; European Central Bank
摘要：We quantify the role of financial leverage behind the sluggish post-crisis investment performance of European firms. We use a cross-country firm-bank matched database to identify separate roles for firm leverage, bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from sovereign risk, and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms entering the crisis with higher debt levels reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms holding short-term debt in countries who...
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作者：Basu, Susanto; Pascali, Luigi; Schiantarelli, Fabio; Serven, Luis
作者单位：Boston College; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We show that the welfare of a country's infinitely lived representative consumer is summarized, to a first order, by total factor productivity (TFP), appropriately defined, and by the capital stock per capita. The result holds for both closed and open economies, regardless of the type of production technology and the degree of product market competition. Welfare-relevant TFP needs to be constructed with prices and quantities as perceived by consumers, not firms. Thus, factor shares need to be ...
