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作者：Sarvimaki, Matti; Uusitalo, Roope; Jantti, Markus
作者单位：Aalto University; VATT Institute for Economic Research; VATT Institute for Economic Research; University of Helsinki; Stockholm University
摘要：We use a research design created by forced migrations to examine the costs and benefits of leaving agriculture in mid-20th century Finland. After World War II, 11% of the Finnish population was resettled from areas ceded to the Soviet Union. Entire rural communities were moved to locations that resembled the origin areas, and displaced farmers were given land and assistance to establish new farms. Despite this policy of reconstructing the pre-war situation, forced migration increased the likel...
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作者：Defever, Fabrice; Riano, Alejandro
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); IESEG School of Management; Universite de Lille; City St Georges, University of London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Received wisdom suggests that most exporters sell most of their output domestically. We show, however, that the distribution of export intensity varies substantially across countries and is often bimodal, displaying twin peaks-that is, large shares of both low- and high-intensity exporters coexisting alongside each other within a country. We reconcile this new stylized fact with an otherwise standard model of trade in which firms face firm-destination-specific revenue shifters that follow a lo...
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作者：Maloney, William F.; Caicedo, Felipe Valencia
作者单位：The World Bank; University of British Columbia
摘要：This paper offers the first systematic historical evidence on the role of a central actor in modern growth theory: the engineer. We construct a database on the share of engineers in the labor force during the Second Industrial Revolution (1870-1914) at the county level for the United States and the state and national levels for the Americas. These measures are robustly correlated with income today after controlling for literacy, other types of higher-order human capital (college graduates, law...
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作者：Engel, Charles; Park, JungJae
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Yonsei University
摘要：We present a model that accounts for the mystery of original sin and the surge in local-currency borrowing by emerging economies in the recent decade. We quantitatively investigate the currency composition of sovereign debt in the presence of two types of limited enforcement frictions arising from a government's monetary and debt policy: strategic currency debasement and default on sovereign debt. Local-currency debt obligations act as a better consumption hedge against income shocks than fore...
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作者：Oprea, Ryan; Yuksel, Sevgi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：We use laboratory experiments to study whether biases in beliefs grow more severe when people socially exchange these beliefs with one another. We elicit subjects' (naturally biased) beliefs about their relative performance in an intelligence quotient (IQ) test and allow them to update these beliefs in real time. Part of the way through the task we give each subject access to the beliefs of a counterpart who performed similarly on the test and allow them both to observe the evolution of one an...
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作者：Enders, Zeno; Huennekes, Franziska; Mueller, Gernot
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current produ...
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作者：Bandiera, Oriana; Elsayed, Ahmed; Heil, Anton; Smurra, Andrea
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); American University Cairo; University of London; University College London
摘要：The Jobs of the World Project is a public resource designed to enable research on jobs and poverty across and within countries over the entire development spectrum. At its core is a new dataset assembled by harmonising Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and National Censuses (IPUMS) for all countries and all years after 1990 where data is available. The current version covers 115 countries, observed four times on average. We use the data to show how the nature of jobs and their allocation va...
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作者：Backus, Matthew; Blake, Thomas; Masterov, Dimitriy; Tadelis, Steven
作者单位：Columbia University; Amazon.com; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study disappointment and platform exit among new bidders in an online auction marketplace. In particular, we study a hybrid auction format with a Buy-It-Now option, which, when executed, will abruptly end the auction and cancel any standing bids. When this happens, if the formerly leading bidder is new to the platform, then they are 6 percentage points more likely to exit the marketplace for every additional day they spent in the lead. This is rationalized by disappointment-averse bidders w...
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作者：Abrams, David; Galbiati, Roberto; Henry, Emeric; Philippe, Arnaud
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Bristol
摘要：We study spatial variation in criminal sentencing. We show the existence of local sentencing practices varying widely even across geographically proximate areas. Using compulsory rotation of judges in North Carolina, we find that judges arriving in a new court gradually converge toward local sentencing practices. We provide evidence that convergence in sentencing corresponds to a process of learning about local practices, which is accelerated by the presence of senior judges in the district, a...
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作者：Vera-Cossio, Diego
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：Locally targeted programs may exploit available information transmitted through local networks to improve the selection of beneficiaries, but the effective use of this information is not granted when the selection of beneficiaries entails balancing multiple targeting criteria that are costly to verify. This paper analyzes how local committees balance issues of neediness, productivity, risk, and favoritism to allocate subsidized loans to Thai villagers. Local committees in charge of managing vi...
