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作者：Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of St Gallen; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper develops a notion of consumer confidence within a dynamic competitive equilibrium framework. In any situation where multiple equilibrium prices on next-period spot markets are equally supported by the state of the economy, confidence is encoded in the subjective probabilities consumers attach to these multiple future outcomes. Our approach characterizes the set of all equilibrium-consistent subjective probabilities, and thereby endogenizes the extent of uncertainty faced by consumer...
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作者：Lai, Ernest K.; Lim, Wooyoung
作者单位：Lehigh University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We design experimental games to evaluate the predictive power of the first cheap-talk refinement, neologism-proofness. In our first set of treatments designed to evaluate the refinement with its usual emphasis on literal meanings, we find that a fully revealing equilibrium that is neologism-proof is played more often; senders deviate from an equilibrium in a way that can be predicted by the credibility of the neologism; and receivers' behavior indicates that they understand senders' deviating ...
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作者：Kociecki, Andrzej; Kolasa, Marcin
作者单位：Narodowy Bank Polski; Warsaw School of Economics
摘要：This paper introduces a computational framework to analyze global identification of linearized DSGE models. A formal identification condition is established that relies on the restrictions linking the observationally equivalent state space representations and on the inherent constraints imposed by the model solution on the deep parameters. This condition is next used to develop an algorithm that checks global identification by searching for observationally equivalent model parametrizations. Th...
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作者：Hyytinen, Ari; Merilainen, Jaakko; Saarimaa, Tuukka; Toivanen, Otto; Tukiainen, Janne
作者单位：University of Jyvaskyla; Stockholm University; Aalto University; VATT Institute for Economic Research; KU Leuven; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistic...
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作者：Khan, Shakeeb; Nekipelov, Denis
作者单位：Boston College; University of Virginia
摘要：Strategic interaction parameters characterize the impact of actions of one economic agent on the payoff of another economic agent, and are of great interest in both theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, by considering econometric models involving simultaneous discrete systems of equations, we study how the information available to economic agents regarding other economic agents can influence whether or not these strategic information parameters can be inferred from the observed action...
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作者：Esponda, Ignacio; Vespa, Emanuel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：Accounting for sample selection is a challenge not only for empirical researchers, but also for the agents populating our models. Yet most models abstract from these issues and assume that agents successfully tackle selection problems. We design an experiment where a person who understands selection observes all the data required to account for it. Subjects make choices under uncertainty and their choices reveal valuable information that is biased due to the presence of unobservables. We find ...
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作者：Fox, Jeremy T.
作者单位：Rice University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I explore the estimation of transferable utility matching games, encompassing many-to-many matching, marriage, and matching with trading networks (trades). Computational issues are paramount. I introduce a matching maximum score estimator that does not suffer from a computational curse of dimensionality in the number of agents in a matching market. I apply the estimator to data on the car parts supplied by automotive suppliers to estimate the valuations from different portfolios of parts to su...
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作者：Kovarik, Jaromir; Mengel, Friederike; Gabriel Romero, Jose
作者单位：University of Basque Country; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; University of Essex; Universidad de Santiago de Chile
摘要：We report the findings of experiments designed to study how people learn in network games. Network games offer new opportunities to identify learning rules, since on networks (compared to, e.g., random matching) more rules differ in terms of their information requirements. Our experimental design enables us to observe both which actions participants choose and which information they consult before making their choices. We use these data to estimate learning types using finite mixture models. M...
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作者：Chan, Marc K.; Liu, Kai
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Cambridge
摘要：We investigate the importance of various mechanisms by which child care policies can affect life-cycle patterns of employment and fertility among women, as well as long-run cognitive outcomes among children. A dynamic structural model of employment, fertility, and child care use is estimated using Norwegian administrative data. The estimation exploits a large-scale child care reform, which provided generous cash transfers to mothers who did not use formal child care facilities. We find that th...
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作者：Komarova, Tatiana; Nekipelov, Denis; Yakovlev, Evgeny
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Virginia; New Economic School
摘要：It is commonplace that the data needed for econometric inference are not contained in a single source. In this paper we analyze the problem of parametric inference from combined individual-level data when data combination is based on personal and demographic identifiers such as name, age, or address. Our main question is the identification of the econometric model based on the combined data when the data do not contain exact individual identifiers and no parametric assumptions are imposed on t...
