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作者：Manski, Charles F.
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：This paper studies an identification problem that arises when clinicians seek to personalize patient care by predicting health outcomes conditional on observed patient covariates. Let y be an outcome of interest and let (x=k, w=j) be observed patient covariates. Suppose a clinician wants to choose a care option that maximizes a patient's expected utility conditional on the observed covariates. To accomplish this, the clinician needs to know the conditional probability distribution P(y|x=k, w=j...
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作者：Breunig, Christoph; Hoderlein, Stefan
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; Boston College
摘要：In this paper, we suggest and analyze a new class of specification tests for random coefficient models. These tests allow to assess the validity of central structural features of the model, in particular linearity in coefficients, generalizations of this notion like a known nonlinear functional relationship, or degeneracy of the distribution of a random coefficient, that is, whether a coefficient is fixed or random, including whether an associated variable can be omitted altogether. Our tests ...
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作者：Inoue, Atsushi; Shintani, Mototsugu
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of Tokyo; University of Tokyo
摘要：In this paper, we establish the consistency of the model selection criterion based on the quasi-marginal likelihood (QML) obtained from Laplace-type estimators. We consider cases in which parameters are strongly identified, weakly identified and partially identified. Our Monte Carlo results confirm our consistency results. Our proposed procedure is applied to select among New Keynesian macroeconomic models using US data.
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作者：Kline, Brendan
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This paper studies the identification and estimation of the decision rules that individuals use to determine their actions in games, based on a structural econometric model of non-equilibrium behavior in games. The model is based primarily on various notions of limited strategic reasoning, allowing multiple modes of strategic reasoning and heterogeneity in strategic reasoning across individuals and within individuals. The paper proposes the model and provides sufficient conditions for point id...
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作者：Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; van Kippersluis, Hans
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Social interactions are widely recognized to play an important role in smoking initiation among adolescents. In this paper, we hypothesize that emotionally stable, conscientious individuals are better able to resist peer pressure in the uptake of smoking. We exploit detailed friendship nominations in the US Add Health data, and extend the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to deal with (i) endogenous peer selection, and (ii) unobserved contextual effects, in order to identify heterogeneity in ...
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作者：Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：A standard approach to estimating structural parameters in life-cycle models imposes sufficient assumptions on the data to identify the age profile of outcomes, then chooses model parameters so that the model's age profile matches this empirical age profile. I show that this approach is both incorrect and unnecessary: incorrect, because it generally produces inconsistent estimators of the structural parameters, and unnecessary, because consistent estimators can be obtained under weaker assumpt...
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作者：Gregory, Jesse
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a model of college basketball teams' search for scoring opportunities, to provide a benchmark of the winning margin distributions that should arise if teams' only goal is to win. I estimate the model's structural parameters using first-half play-by-play data from college games and simulate the estimated model's predicted winning margin distributions. Teams' optimal state-dependent strategies generate patterns that match those previously cited as evidence of po...
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作者：Granziera, Eleonora; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Bank of Finland; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign-restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign-restricted SVARs w...
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作者：Ura, Takuya
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the exclusion restriction of an instrument and the deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment in the instrument. Even allowing for general measurement error (e.g., the measurement err...
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作者：Lale, Etienne
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：This paper provides new interpretations of the effects of rising economic turbulencean increase in the rate of skill depreciation upon job lossand its interaction with labor market institutions. We have three main results, based on a life-cycle model with labor market frictions and labor force participation decisions. First, rising economic turbulence during the 1970s and 1980s accounts for the decline in employment among older workers in the United States. Second, the interaction between turb...
