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作者：Cadot, Olivier; Carrere, Celine; Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa
作者单位：The World Bank; Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); heSam Universite; ESCP Business School
摘要：The paper explores the evolution of export diversification patterns along the economic development path. Using a large database with 156 countries over 19 years at the HS6 level of disaggregation (4,991 product lines), we look for action at the intensive and extensive margins. We find a hump-shaped pattern of export diversification similar to what Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) found for production. Diversification and subsequent reconcentration take place mostly along the extensive margin. This hum...
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作者：Cohen-Cole, Ethan
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper evaluates the presence of racial disparities in the issuance of consumer credit. Using a database of credit histories, I link location-based information on race with individual credit files. After controlling for place-specific factors such as housing vacancy rates and general population demographics, I find qualitatively large differences in the amount of credit offered to similarly qualified applicants living in black versus white areas. High data quality allows distinguishing bet...
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作者：Lehmann, Sibylle H.; O'Rourke, Kevin H.
作者单位：University of Cologne; Trinity College Dublin
摘要：Many papers have explored the relationship between average tariff rates and economic growth when theory suggests that the structure of protection is what should matter. We therefore explore the relationship between economic growth and agricultural tariffs, industrial tariffs, and revenue tariffs for a sample of relatively well-developed countries between 1875 and 1913. Industrial tariffs were positively correlated with growth, and agricultural tariffs were generally negatively correlated with ...
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作者：Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Salvanes, Kjell G.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University College Dublin; Trinity College Dublin; Trinity College Dublin; University College Dublin; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Using Norwegian data, we examine effects of school starting age (SSA). Unlike much recent literature, we can separate SSA from test age effects using scores from IQ tests taken outside school at about age 18. We find a small, negative effect of starting school older but much larger positive effects of age at test. Also, starting older leads to lower earnings until about age 30. We find little impact of SSA on educational attainment, but boys who start older are less likely to have poor mental ...
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作者：Ouyang, Min
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：We explore the link between short-run cycles and long-run growth by examining the cyclicality of R&D. Existing theories propose that R&D is concentrated when output is low, but aggregate data repeatedly show that R&D appears procyclical. We estimate the relationship between R&D and output using an annual panel of twenty U.S. manufacturing industries from 1958 to 1998. The results indicate that R&D is in fact procyclical, but, interestingly, estimates using demand-shift instruments suggest that...
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作者：Karlan, Dean; Valdivia, Martin
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：Most academic and development policy discussions about microentrepreneurs focus on credit constraints and assume that subject to those constraints, the entrepreneurs manage their business optimally. Yet the self-employed poor rarely have any formal training in business skills. A growing number of microfinance organizations are attempting to build the human capital of microentrepreneurs in order to improve the livelihood of their clients and help further their mission of poverty alleviation. Us...
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作者：Strobl, Eric
摘要：I estimate the impact of hurricane strikes on local economic growth rates. To this end, I assemble a panel data set of U.S. coastal counties' growth rates and construct a novel hurricane destruction index that is based on a monetary loss equation, local wind speed estimates derived from a physical wind field model, and local exposure characteristics. The econometric results suggest that a county's annual economic growth rate falls on average by 0.45 percentage points, 28% of it due to richer i...
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作者：Hahn, Jinyong; Ridder, Geert
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Southern California
摘要：It is shown that in a nonparametric nonseparable triangular system, the conditional moment restriction (CMR) does not identify the average structural function (ASF). The CMR identifies the ASF only if the model is structurally separable in observable covariates and unobservable random errors. This excludes, for instance, random coefficient models in which the CMR in general does not identify the average response. An implication of our results is that empirical researchers should use methods ot...
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作者：Faust, Jon; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University
摘要：It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase the asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns, valid augmenting variables exist and are likely to yield substantial gains in estimation efficiency and, hence, predictive accuracy. The proposed augmenting variables are ex post measures of an unfore...
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作者：Lin, Jeffrey
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Where does adaptation to innovation take place? I present evidence on the role of agglomeration economies in the application of new knowledge to production. All else equal, workers are more likely to be observed in new work in locations initially dense in college graduates and industry variety. This pattern is consistent with economies from the geographic concentration of factors and markets related to technological adaptation. A main contribution is a new measure, based on revisions to occupa...
