ON THE CYCLICALITY OF R&D

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ouyang, Min
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00076
• 发表日期: 2011-05
• 页码: 542-553
• 关键词: productivity

摘要

We explore the link between short-run cycles and long-run growth by examining the cyclicality of R&D. Existing theories propose that R&D is concentrated when output is low, but aggregate data repeatedly show that R&D appears procyclical. We estimate the relationship between R&D and output using an annual panel of twenty U.S. manufacturing industries from 1958 to 1998. The results indicate that R&D is in fact procyclical, but, interestingly, estimates using demand-shift instruments suggest that it responds asymmetrically to demand shocks. We propose that liquidity constraint is an important cause for the observed procyclicality of R&D.