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作者：Greenland, Andrew; Lopresti, John; McHenry, Peter
作者单位：Elon University; William & Mary
摘要：We examine the U.S. internal migration response to increased import competition following the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations to China in 2001. Using a variety of data sets and empirical approaches, we find that local labor markets most exposed to the policy change experienced a relative reduction in population growth over the following decade. The majority of the effect occurs at a lag of seven to ten years and is most pronounced among young individuals and low-education groups. ...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Flaaen, Aaron; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. The scope for trade linkages to generate cross-country spillovers depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to domestic inputs. Using the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we structurally estimate production elasticities at the firm level and find greater complementarities in...
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作者：Garin, Julio; Lester, Robert; Sims, Eric
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Colby College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that th...
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作者：Lafortune, Jeanne; Lewis, Ethan; Tessada, Jose
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration-induced variation in skill mix across U.S. counties between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital initially complemented both high- and low-skill labor (determined by literacy) and, unlike today, was more complementary with low-skill labor. Around 1890, capital increased its relative complementarity with high-skill labor. Simulations calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capi...
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作者：Siemer, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Employment declined substantially during the 2007-2009 recession, especially in small and young firms. Using confidential firm-level data of the universe of firms and a difference-in-differences methodology, this paper estimates that financial constraints reduced employment growth by 4 to 8 percentage points in small firms relative to large firms and by 7 to 9 percentage points in young relative to old firms. I find that the effect of financial constraints on small firms is driven to a large e...
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作者：Bennett, Daniel; Yin, Wesley
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This study examines the effect of chain store entry on drug quality and prices in India. In contrast to prevailing mom-and-pop pharmacies, chains exploit scale economies in distribution and signaling to offer high-quality drugs at lower cost. We show that chain entry leads to a 5% improvement in drug quality and a 2% decrease in prices at incumbent retailers. Effects are larger for locally distributed drug brands but do not depend on consumer SES. Our findings suggest that in markets with asym...
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作者：Sabia, Joseph J.; Pitts, M. Melinda; Argys, Laura M.
作者单位：California State University System; San Diego State University; University System Of New Hampshire; University of New Hampshire; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver
摘要：In volume 94 of this REVIEW, Adams, Blackburn, and Cotti (ABC), using Fatal Accident Reporting System data from 1998 to 2006, find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 7% to 11% increase in alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents involving teen drivers. We find this result does not hold when the analysis period is expanded to include 1991 through 2013. In addition, auxiliary analyses provide no support for income-driven increases in alcohol consumption, the primary mech...
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作者：Evans, William N.; Lieber, Ethan M. J.; Power, Patrick
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：We attribute the recent quadrupling of heroin death rates to the August 2010 reformulation of an oft-abused prescription opioid, OxyContin. The new abuse-deterrent formulation led many consumers to substitute an inexpensive alternative, heroin. Using structural break techniques and variation in substitution risk, we find that opioid consumption stops rising in August 2010, heroin deaths begin climbing the following month, and growth in heroin deaths was greater in areas with greater prereformu...
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作者：Levinson, Arik; O'Brien, James
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Gettysburg College
摘要：Environmental Engel curves (EECs) describe households' incomes and the pollution necessary to produce the goods and services they consume. We calculate 29 annual EECs from 1984 to 2012 for point-source air pollutants in the United States, revealing three clear results: EECs slope upward, have income elasticities less than 1, and shift down over time. Even without changes to production techniques, pollution would have declined despite growing incomes. This improvement can be attributed about eq...
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作者：Berman, Nicolas; Rebeyrol, Vincent; Vicard, Vincent
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and...
