Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Berman, Nicolas; Rebeyrol, Vincent; Vicard, Vincent
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; European Central Bank; Bank of France
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00731
• 发表日期: 2019-03
• 页码: 91-106
• 关键词: size distribution; selection; GROWTH; MARKETS; models

摘要

This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms' beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.