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作者：Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Warwick
摘要：We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices a...
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作者：Lilley, Andrew; Maggiori, Matteo; Neiman, Brent; Schreger, Jesse
作者单位：Harvard University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as exchange rate disconnect. We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007-2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk mea...
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作者：Guerra, Jose-Alberto; Mohnen, Myra
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); University of Essex; University of Ottawa; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the importance of social interactions on occupational choice in Victorian London using a multinomial choice model within an incomplete social network. Individuals form heterogeneous rational expectations about their peers' behaviors, taking into account their characteristics and the strength of their ties. We show the conditions under which the endogenous, exogenous, and correlated effects can be identified and a unique equilibrium can be established, Using a novel data set, we proxy ...
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作者：Friedrich, Benjamin U.
作者单位：Aarhus University; Northwestern University
摘要：This paper shows robust effects of trade shocks on within-firm wage inequality through changes in firm hierarchies. It uses two distinct research designs-one considering firm-level shocks to foreign demand and transportation costs, the other analyzing the Muslim boycott of Danish exports after the 2006 cartoon crisis. Consistent with knowledge-based and incentive-based hierarchy models, trade shocks affect organizational choices through production scale. Adding a hierarchy layer increases ineq...
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作者：Christensen, Peter; Sarmiento-Barbieri, Ignacio; Timmins, Christopher
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Duke University
摘要：Local pollution exposures have a disproportionate impact on minority households, but the root causes remain unclear. This study conducts a correspondence experiment on a major online housing platform to test whether housing discrimination constrains minority access to housing options in markets with significant sources of airborne chemical toxics. We find that renters with African American or Hispanic/Latinx names are 41% less likely than renters with white names to receive responses for prope...
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作者：Gine, Xavier; Mansuri, Ghazala; Shrestha, Slesh A.
作者单位：The World Bank; National University of Singapore
摘要：We assess the role of monetary incentives in a mission-oriented organization by randomly assigning workers to one of two bonus schemes, incentivizing either the performance of a microcredit program (bottom line) or the empowerment of clients (mission). We find that the credit bonus improved credit-related outcomes but undermined the social mission, while the social bonus did not harm the bottom line. These results are consistent with a multitasking model with production spillovers or with pros...
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作者：Riise, Julie; Willage, Barton; Willen, Alexander
作者单位：University of Bergen; Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：We use exogenously assigned general practitioners to study the effects of female role models on girls' educational outcomes. Girls who are exposed to female general practitioners are more likely to sort into male-dominated education programs in high school, most notably science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). These effects persist as they enter college and select majors. The effects are larger for high-ability girls with low-educated mothers, suggesting that female...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Blair, Robert A.; Blattman, Christopher; Dube, Oeindrila; Gudgeon, Matthew; Peck, Richard
作者单位：Boston University; Brown University; University of Chicago; United States Military Academy; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; Northwestern University
摘要：How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well fo...
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作者：Cook, C. Justin; Shah, Manisha
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper explores the aggregate economic effects from India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides up to 100 days of labor to rural laborers at the mandated minimum wage. We examine the within-district change to nighttime lights, a proxy for economic development, and banking deposits using the staggered program rollout for identification. We find consistent and robust evidence that NREGS increased aggregate economic output by 1% to 2% per capita measured by nigh...
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作者：Bleichrodt, Han; van Bruggen, Paul
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Universitat d'Alacant; Tilburg University
摘要：Higher-order risk preferences are important determinants of economic behavior. We apply insights from behavioral economics: we measure higher-order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflection effect not only for second-order risk preferences, as did Kahneman and Tversky (1979). but also for higher-order risk preferences: we find risk aversion, prudence and intemperance for gains and much more risk-loving preferences, imprudence and temperance for losses. These findings are...
