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作者：Ciminelli, Gabriele; Duval, Romain; Furceri, Davide
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation on the labor share in a sample of 26 advanced economies during the 1970-2013 period, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms in this area. We employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory-deregulation has larger effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher natural propensity to regularly adjust the workforce and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitutio...
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作者：Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Warwick
摘要：We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices a...
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作者：Currie, Janet; Mueller-Smith, Michael; Rossin-Slater, Maya
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Stanford University
摘要：We study the effects of prenatal exposure to violent crime on infant health, using New York City crime records linked to mothers' addresses in birth records data. We address endogeneity of assault exposure with three strategies and find that in utero assault exposure significantly increases the incidence of adverse birth outcomes. We calculate that the annual social cost of assault during pregnancy in the United States is more than $3.8 billion. Since infant health predicts long-term wellbeing...
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作者：Binder, Carola; Makridis, Christos
作者单位：Haverford College; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Using daily consumer survey data, we analyze the transmission of gas prices to consumer beliefs and expectations about the economy. We exploit the high frequency and geographic disaggregation of our data set to facilitate identification. Consumer sentiment becomes more pessimistic with rising gas prices. This effect is strongest for consumers who lived through the recessionary oil crises in the 1970s, consistent with models of learning from personal experience. For younger respondents, the sen...
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作者：Amaral-Garcia, Sofia; Nardotto, Mattia; Propper, Carol; Valletti, Tommaso
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Imperial College London; University of Bristol; University of Rome Tor Vergata
摘要：We study the effect of Internet diffusion on childbirth procedures performed in England between 2000 and 2011. We show that broadband Internet access increased cesarean sections (C-sections): mothers living in areas with better Internet access are 2.5% more likely to obtain a C-section. The effect is driven by first-time mothers who are 6% more likely to obtain a C-section. The increased C-section rate is not accompanied by changes in health care outcomes; thus health care costs increased with...
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作者：Lilley, Andrew; Maggiori, Matteo; Neiman, Brent; Schreger, Jesse
作者单位：Harvard University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as exchange rate disconnect. We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007-2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk mea...
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Matthes, Christian; Ziegenbein, Alexander
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Vienna
摘要：While episodes of financial distress are followed by large and persistent drops in economic activity, structural time series analyses point to relatively mild and transitory effects of financial market disruptions. We argue that these seemingly contradictory findings are due to the asymmetric effects of financial shocks, which have been predicted theoretically but not taken into account empirically. We estimate a model designed to identify the (possibly asymmetric) effects of financial market ...
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作者：Chen, M. Keith; Haggag, Kareem; Pope, Devin G.; Rohla, Ryne
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Carnegie Mellon University; University of Chicago
摘要：Equal access to voting is a core feature of democratic government. Using data from hundreds of thousands of smartphone users, we quantify a racial disparity in voting wait times across a nationwide sample of polling places during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Relative to entirely white neighborhoods, residents of entirely black neighborhoods waited 29% longer to vote and were 74% more likely to spend more than thirty minutes at their polling place. This disparity holds when comparing pr...
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作者：Ho, Chun-Yu; Xu, Li; Zhang, Daiqiang
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：We examine price negotiation in the payment card industry by exploiting a unique merchant-, industry-, and city-level data set. Motivated by the substantial variation in acquirer fees and heterogeneous merchant card transactions, we use Nash bargaining to model the negotiation over the acquirer fee between an acquirer and a merchant. We find that the merchants secure a larger incremental surplus than the acquirer on average. Moreover, merchants might face upward pressure on acquirer fees as th...
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作者：Bottan, Nicolas L.; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
作者单位：Cornell University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Do individuals care about their relative income? While this is a long-standing hypothesis, revealed-preference evidence remains elusive. We provide a unique test by studying residential choices: individuals often must choose between places with different income distributions, and as a result they choose their relative income. We conducted a field experiment with 1,080 senior medical students who participated in the National Resident Matching Program. We estimate their preferences by combining ...
