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作者：Britto, Diogo G. C.
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：Lump-sum job displacement policies (e.g., severance pay) are often presented as a better alternative to contingent policies (e.g., unemployment insurance) in the context of developing countries, under the rationale that the former are less harmful to formal employment as they do not incentivize substitution from formal to informal jobs. First, this paper provides original evidence on the employment effects of lump-sum income in the context of a developing country with high labor informality. A...
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作者：Murphy, David M. A.; Nourani, Vesall; Lee, David R.
作者单位：Colgate University; University of Chicago; Cornell University
摘要：This paper shows the causal relationship between mutual religious association and the formation of social ties. We analyze dyadic relationships and show that joint attendance at a religious institution (RI) increases the probability of sharing information with and trusting a peer. We use a novel spatial instrumental variable strategy that combines insights from homestead inheritance institutions with triangular distances between peers and RI locations within villages in Kenya. We find that sha...
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作者：Arellano-Bover, Jaime
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Using data on adults' cognitive skills from nineteen countries, this paper shows that labor market conditions during the education-to-work transition affected workers' long-term skill development. Workers who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18 to 25 have lower skills at ages 36 to 59. Unemployment rates at ages 26 to 35 do not have such an effect. Skill inequality is affected: those with less educated parents experience most of the negative effects. Using German panel data on skills, I...
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作者：Gaessler, Fabian; Wagner, Stefan
作者单位：European School of Management & Technology
摘要：Pharmaceutical firms enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent patent protection and exclusivity of the clinical trials data submitted for market approval. Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity. In instrumental variables regressions, we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug commercialization. The effect is largely d...
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作者：Lewis, Daniel J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close to proportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of nonconservative robust inference on subsets of the parameters, which ...
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作者：Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James
作者单位：Korea University; University of Sydney
摘要：Since the Great Recession in 2007-2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those ...
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作者：Dominguez, Patricio
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper analyzes crime as a function of the interaction between offenders and victims. I study robbery of bus drivers, a crime that remains common in cities throughout the world. Exploiting the timing of a Chilean public transportation reform and detailed administrative data, I show how victims' propensity to resist an attack can alter the level and nature of criminal activity. I also find a large decline in crime after the implementation of a technological innovation that eliminated cash t...
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作者：Fuster, Andreas; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo; Wiederholt, Mirko; Zafar, Basit
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We use a survey experiment to generate direct evidence on how people acquire and process information. Participants can buy different information signals that could help them forecast future national home prices. We elicit their valuations and exogenously vary the cost of information. Participants put substantial value on their preferred signal and, when acquired, incorporate the signal in their beliefs. However, they disagree on which signal to buy. As a result, making information cheaper does...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Princeton University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint long-run evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in century-long samples, and a sparse correlation pattern (convergence clubs) between countries. The joint Bayesian structure allows us to compute a joint predictive distribution for the output pa...
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作者：Barrera-Osorio, Felipe; Blakeslee, David S.; Hoover, Matthew; Linden, Leigh; Raju, Dhushyanth; Ryan, Stephen P.
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Gallup, Inc.; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank; Washington University (WUSTL); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We evaluate a program that recruited local entrepreneurs to open and operate new schools in 200 underserved villages in Sindh, Pakistan. School operators received a per student subsidy to provide tuition-free primary education, and half the villages received a higher subsidy for females. The program increased enrollment by 32 percentage points and test scores by 0.63 standard deviations, with no difference across the two subsidy schemes. Estimating a structural model of the demand and supply f...
