The Annals of Applied Statistics

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• NEURAL NETWORKS FOR EXTREME QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH AN APPLICATION TO FORECASTING OF FLOOD RISK AI翻译
  作者：Pasche, Olivier C.; Engelke, Sebastian
  作者单位：University of Geneva
  摘要：Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate in the predictor space. We propose the EQRN model that combines tools from neural networks and extreme value theory into a method capable of extrapolation in the presence of complex predictor dependence. Neural networks can naturally incorporate additional ...
• CAUSAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF POWER PLANT EMISSION CONTROLS UNDER MODELED AND UNCERTAIN PHYSICAL PROCESS INTERFERENCE AI翻译
  作者：Wikle, Nathan B.; Zigler, Corwin M.
  作者单位：University of Iowa; Brown University
  摘要：Causal inference with spatial environmental data is often challenging due to the presence of interference: outcomes for observational units depend on some combination of local and nonlocal treatment. This is especially relevant when estimating the effect of power plant emissions controls on population health, as pollution exposure is dictated by: (i) the location of point-source emissions as well as (ii) the transport of pollutants across space via dynamic physical-chemical processes. In this ...
• IDENTIFICATION OF INFLUENCING FACTORS ON SELF-REPORTED COUNT DATA WITH MULTIPLE POTENTIAL INFLATED VALUES AI翻译
  作者：Li, Yang; Wu, Mingcong; Wu, Mengyun; Ma, Shuangge
  作者单位：Renmin University of China; Renmin University of China; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Yale University
  摘要：The online chauffeured service demand (OCSD) research is an exploratory market study of designated driver services in China. Researchers are interested in the influencing factors of chauffeured service adoption and usage and have collected relevant data using a self-reported questionnaire. As self-reported count measure data is typically inflated, there exist challenges to its validity, which may bias estimation and increase error in empirical research. Motivated by the analysis of self-report...
• ON THE FAIR COMPARISON OF OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS IN DIFFERENT MACHINES AI翻译
  作者：Arza, Etor; Ceberio, Josu; Irurozki, Ekhine; Perez, Aritz
  作者单位：Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM); University of Basque Country; IMT - Institut Mines-Telecom; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Telecom Paris
  摘要：An experimental comparison of two or more optimization algorithms requires the same computational resources to be assigned to each algorithm. When a maximum runtime is set as the stopping criterion, all algorithms need to be executed in the same machine if they are to use the same resources. Unfortunately, the implementation code of the algorithms is not always available, which means that running the algorithms to be compared in the same machine is not always possible. And even if they are ava...
• MULTIPLE CHANGE POINT DETECTION IN FUNCTIONAL DATA WITH APPLICATIONS TO BIOMECHANICAL FATIGUE DATA AI翻译
  作者：Bastian, Patrick; Basu, Rupsa; Dette, Holger
  作者单位：Ruhr University Bochum
  摘要：Injuries to the lower extremity joints are often debilitating, particularly for professional athletes. Understanding the onset of stressful conditions on these joints is, therefore, important in order to ensure prevention of injuries as well as individualised training for enhanced athletic performance. We study the biomechanical joint angles from the hip, knee and ankle for runners who are experiencing fatigue. The data is cyclic in nature and densely collected by body-worn sensors, which make...
• A NEW MULTIPLE-MEDIATOR MODEL MAXIMALLY UNCOVERING THE MEDIATION PATHWAY: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF NEUROIMAGING MEASURES IN AGE-RELATED COGNITIVE DECLINE AI翻译
  作者：Lee, Hwiyoung; Chen, Chixiang; Kochunov, Peter; Hong, L. Elliot; Chen, Shuo
  作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore; University of Texas System; University of Texas Health Science Center Houston; Baylor College of Medicine; Baylor College Medical Hospital
  摘要：Aging changes brain functions and structures in a downward trajectory and consequently leads to a decline in neurocognitive performance. Our research is motivated by understanding whether and to what extent the ageeffect on cognitive decline can be explained by neuroimaging measures. We consider a new mediation model with age as an independent variable, while treating neuroimaging data and cognitive function as the multiple mediators and outcome, respectively. Given that the brain is the prima...
• A LATENT VARIABLE MIXTURE MODEL FOR COMPOSITION-ON-COMPOSITION REGRESSION WITH APPLICATION TO CHEMICAL RECYCLING AI翻译
  作者：Rios, Nicholas; Xue, Lingzhou; Zhan, Xiang
  作者单位：George Mason University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Peking University; Peking University
  摘要：It is quite common to encounter compositional data in a regression framework in data analysis. When both responses and predictors are compositional, most existing models rely on a family of log-ratio based transformations to move the analysis from the simplex to the reals. This often makes the interpretation of the model more complex. A transformation-free regression model was recently developed, but it only allows for a single compositional predictor. However, many datasets include multiple c...
• MODELLING CORRELATION MATRICES IN MULTIVARIATE DATA, WITH APPLICATION TO RECIPROCITY AND COMPLEMENTARITY OF CHILD-PARENT EXCHANGES OF SUPPORT AI翻译
  作者：Zhang, Siliang; Kuha, Jouni; Steele, Fiona
  作者单位：East China Normal University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
  摘要：We define a model for the joint distribution of multiple continuous latent variables, which includes a model for how their correlations depend on explanatory variables. This is motivated by and applied to social scientific research questions in the analysis of intergenerational help and support within families, where the correlations describe reciprocity of help between generations and complementarity of different kinds of help. We propose an MCMC procedure for estimating the model which maint...
• SEMIPARAMETRIC LINEAR REGRESSION WITH AN INTERVAL-CENSORED COVARIATE IN THE ATHEROSCLEROSIS RISK IN COMMUNITIES STUDY AI翻译
  作者：Sizelove, Richard; Zeng, Donglin; Lin, Dan -yu
  作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
  摘要：In longitudinal studies, investigators are often interested in understanding how the time since the occurrence of an intermediate event affects a future outcome. The intermediate event is often asymptomatic such that its occurrence is only known to lie in a time interval induced by periodic examinations. We propose a linear regression model that relates the time since the occurrence of the intermediate event to a continuous response at a future time point through a rectified linear unit activa...
• SPATIAL PREDICTIONS ON PHYSICALLY CONSTRAINED DOMAINS: APPLICATIONS TO ARCTIC SEA SALINITY DATA AI翻译
  作者：Jin, Bora; Herring, Amy H.; Dunson, David
  作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Duke University
  摘要：In this paper we predict sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Arctic Ocean based on satellite measurements. SSS is a crucial indicator for ongoing changes in the Arctic Ocean and can offer important insights about climate change. We particularly focus on areas of water mistakenly flagged as ice by satellite algorithms. To remove bias in the retrieval of salinity near sea ice, the algorithms use conservative ice masks, which result in considerable loss of data. We aim to produce realistic SSS valu...