The Annals of Applied Statistics

最新文章

• FORECASTING US INFLATION USING BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MODELS AI翻译
  作者：Clark, Todd E.; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Marcellino, Massimiliano
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Salzburg University; University of Strathclyde; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：The relationship between inflation and predictors, such as unemployment, is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we develop a model for inflation forecasting that is nonparametric both in the conditional mean and in the error using Gaussian and Dirichlet processes, respectively. We discuss how both these features may be important in producing accurate forecasts of inflation. In...
• INFORMATION-INCORPORATED CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF DISEASE PREVALENCE TRENDS AI翻译
  作者：Ma, Chenjin; Lin, Cunjie; Xue, Yuan; Zhang, Sanguo; Zhang, Qingzhao; Ma, Shuangge
  作者单位：Beijing University of Technology; Renmin University of China; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Xiamen University; Yale University
  摘要：In biomedical research the analysis of disease prevalence is of critical importance. While most of the existing prevalence studies focus on individual diseases, there has been increasing effort that jointly examines the prevalence values and their trends of multiple diseases. Such joint analysis can provide valuable insights not shared by individual -disease analysis. A critical limitation of the existing analysis is that there is a lack of attention to existing information, which has been acc...
• A BAYESIAN SPATIO-TEMPORAL LEVEL SET DYNAMIC MODEL AND APPLICATION TO FIRE FRONT PROPAGATION AI翻译
  作者：Yoo, Myungsoo; Wikle, Christopher K.
  作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
  摘要：Intense wildfires impact nature, humans, and society, causing catastrophic damage to property and the ecosystem as well as the loss of life. Forecasting wildfire front propagation and understanding the behavior of wildfire propagation within a formal uncertainty quantification framework are essential in order to support fire fighting efforts and plan evacuations. The level set method has been widely used to analyze the change in surfaces, shapes, and boundaries. In particular, a signed distanc...
• LEARNING RISK PREFERENCES IN MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES: AN APPLICATION TO THE FOURTH DOWN DECISION IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE AI翻译
  作者：Andholtz, Athan; Wu, Lucas; Uterman, Artin; Chan, Timothy c. y.
  作者单位：Brigham Young University; University of British Columbia; University of Toronto
  摘要：For decades National Football League (NFL) coaches' observed fourth down decisions have been largely inconsistent with prescriptions based on statistical models. In this paper we develop a framework to explain this discrepancy using an inverse optimization approach. We model the fourth down decision and the subsequent sequence of plays in a game as a Markov decision process (MDP), the dynamics of which we estimate from NFL playby-play data from the 2014 through 2022 seasons. We assume that coa...
• DEEPMAP: DEEP LEARNING-BASED SINGLE-CELL DATA INTEGRATION USING ITERATIVE CELL MATCHING AND STRUCTURE PRESERVATION CONSTRAINTS AI翻译
  作者：Xu, Shuntuo; Yu, Zhou; Ming, Jingsi
  作者单位：East China Normal University; East China Normal University
  摘要：Effective integration of single-cell data can facilitate the discovery of cell-type specific gene expression patterns and cellular interactions, ultimately leading to a better understanding of various biological processes and diseases. However, datasets from different platforms, species, and modalities exhibit various levels of heterogeneities, posing significant challenges in data alignment using a unified approach. Here we propose DeepMap, a flexible and efficient method for single-cell data...
• INCORPORATING AUXILIARY INFORMATION FOR IMPROVED STATISTICAL INFERENCE AND ITS EXTENSIONS TO DISTRIBUTED ALGORITHMS WITH AN APPLICATION TO PERSONAL CREDIT AI翻译
  作者：Yu, Miaomiao; Jiang, Zhongfeng; Li, Jiaxuan; Zhou, Yong
  作者单位：East China Normal University; East China Normal University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Academy of Mathematics & System Sciences, CAS
  摘要：Personal credits have always been a hot topic in the society. Among all of them, the evaluation of default risk is particularly concerned since robust estimation, based on personal information, can both help needy individuals to get loans and financial institutions to avoid losses. So far, there have been no good solutions due to limited data, especially default information. With the advent of the era of big data, it is possible to improve the effectiveness of estimates by using auxiliary info...
• BENEFITS AND COSTS OF MATCHING PRIOR TO A DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCES ANALYSIS WHEN PARALLEL TRENDS DOES NOT HOLD AI翻译
  作者：Ham, Dae Woong; Miratrix, Luke
  作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University
  摘要：The consequence of a change in school leadership (e.g., principal turnover) on student achievement has important implications for education policy. The impact of such an event can be estimated via the popular difference in difference (DiD) estimator, where those schools with a turnover event are compared to a selected set of schools that did not have such an event. The strength of this comparison depends on the plausibility of the parallel trends assumption that the treated group of those scho...
• EVALUATION OF TRANSPLANT BENEFITS WITH THE US SCIENTIFIC REGISTRY OF TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS BY SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION OF MEAN RESIDUAL LIFE AI翻译
  作者：Zhao, Ge; Ma, Yanyuan; Lin, Huazhen; Li, Yi
  作者单位：Portland State University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
  摘要：Kidney transplantation is the most effective renal replacement therapy for end stage renal disease patients. With the severe shortage of kidney supplies and for the clinical effectiveness of transplantation, patient's life expectancy posttransplantation is used to prioritize patients for transplantation; however, severe comorbidity conditions and old age are the most dominant factors that negatively impact posttransplantation life expectancy, effectively precluding sick or old patients from re...
• FUNCTIONAL PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES WITH CENSORED OUTCOMES: PREDICTION OF BREAST CANCER RISK WITH MAMMOGRAM IMAGES AI翻译
  作者：Jiang, Shu; Cao, Jiguo; Colditz, Graham A.
  作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
  摘要：We consider the problem of predicting breast cancer risk using mammogram imaging data where the dimension of pixels greatly exceed the number of individuals in the cohort. The functional partial least squares (FPLS) is a popular dimensional reduction method in constructing latent explanatory components using linear combinations of the original predictor variables. While FPLS with scalar responses has been studied in the literature, the presence of right censoring under the survival framework p...
• UTILIZING A CAPTURE-RECAPTURE STRATEGY TO ACCELERATE INFECTIOUS DISEASE SURVEILLANCE AI翻译
  作者：Ge, Lin; Zhang, Yuzi; Waller, Lance; Lyles, Robert
  作者单位：Emory University
  摘要：Monitoring key elements of disease dynamics (e.g., prevalence, case counts) is of great importance in infectious disease prevention and control, as emphasized during the COVID-19 pandemic. To facilitate this effort, we propose a new capture-recapture (CRC) analysis strategy that adjusts for misclassification stemming from the use of easily administered but imperfect diagnostic test kits, such as rapid antigen test-kits or saliva tests. Our method is based on a recently proposed anchor stream d...