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作者：Gilardi, Andrea; Borgoni, Riccardo; Mateu, Jorge
作者单位：University of Milano-Bicocca; Universitat Jaume I
摘要：The algorithms used for the optimal management of an ambulance fleet require an accurate description of the spatiotemporal evolution of the emergency events. In the last years, several authors have proposed sophisticated statistical approaches to forecast ambulance dispatches, typically modelling the data as a point pattern occurring on a planar region. Nevertheless, ambulance interventions can be more appropriately modelled as a realisation of a point process occurring on a linear network. Th...
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作者：Panigrahi, Snigdha; Stewart, Natasha; Sripada, Chandra; Levina, Elizaveta
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Multitask learning is frequently used to model a set of related response variables from the same set of features, improving predictive performance and modeling accuracy relative to methods that handle each response variable separately. Despite the potential of multitask learning to yield more powerful inference than single-task alternatives, prior work in this area has largely omitted uncertainty quantification. Our focus in this paper is a common multitask problem in neuroimaging, where the g...
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作者：De Nicolo, Silvia; Fabrizi, Enrico; Gardini, Aldo
作者单位：University of Bologna; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; IRCCS Policlinico Gemelli
摘要：The paper targets the estimation of a poverty rate at the upazila level in Bangladesh through the use of demographic and health survey (DHS) data. Upazilas are administrative regions equivalent to counties or boroughs whose sample sizes are not large enough to provide reliable estimates or are even absent. We tackle this issue by proposing a small-area estimation model complementing survey data with remote sensing information at the area level. We specify an extended Beta mixed regression mode...
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作者：Tak, Hyungsuk; Ding, Xuheng
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Wuhan University
摘要：We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis to infer the current expansion rate of the Universe, called the Hubble constant (H0), via time delay cosmography. Inputs of the meta-analysis are estimates of two properties for each pair of gravitationally lensed images; time delay and Fermat potential difference estimates with their standard errors. A meta-analysis can be appealing in practice because obtaining each estimate from even a single lens system involves substantial human efforts, and thus estima...
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作者：Krueger, Fabian; Plett, Hendrik
作者单位：Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (fixed) predictand so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are typically published without a quantitative measure of uncertainty. To construct such a measure, we consider forecast postprocessing techniques tailored to the fixed-event case. We develop regression methods that impose constraints motivated by the problem at hand ...
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作者：You, Mengying; Guo, Wensheng
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：The adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol play critical roles in stress regulation and the sleep-wake cycle. Most research has been focused on how the two hormones regulate each other in terms of short-term pulses. Few studies have been conducted on the circadian relationship between the two hormones and how it differs between normal and abnormal groups. The circadian patterns are difficult to model as parametric functions. Directly extending univariate functional mixed effects models would...
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作者：Li, Zeda; Yue, Yu (ryan); Bruce, Scott A.
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We propose a novel analysis of power (ANOPOW) model for analyzing replicated nonstationary time series commonly encountered in experimental studies. Based on a locally stationary ANOPOW Cramer spectral representation, the proposed model can be used to compare the second -order timevarying frequency patterns among different groups of time series and to estimate group effects as functions of both time and frequency. Formulated in a Bayesian framework, independent two-dimensional second -order ra...
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作者：Roy, Siddharth; Roy, Anindya; Clarke, Megan A.; Gradissimo, Ana; Burk, Robert D.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Albert, Paul S.; Liu, Danping
作者单位：National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI); NIH National Cancer Institute- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore County; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI); NIH National Cancer Institute- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics; Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center; Montefiore Medical Center; Albert Einstein College of Medicine; Yeshiva University
摘要：Dynamic risk prediction that incorporates longitudinal measurements of biomarkers is useful in identifying high-risk patients for better clinical management. Our work is motivated by the prediction of cervical precancers. Currently, Pap cytology is used to identify HPV-positive (HPV+) women at high-risk of cervical precancer, but cytology lacks accuracy and reproducibility. Molecular markers, like HPV DNA methylation, that are closely linked to the carcinogenic process show promise of improved...
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作者：Schwendinger, Florian; Vana, Laura; Hornik, Kurt
作者单位：University of Klagenfurt; Technische Universitat Wien; Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：Traditionally, readability prediction has relied on readability formulas, which are based on shallow text characteristics such as average word and sentence length. With recent advances in text mining and natural language processing, more complex text properties can be incorporated into readability prediction models, with papers in the literature suggesting to use up to 200 features for predicting text readability. However, many of the features generated using natural language processing tools ...
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作者：Carter, J. Brandon; Browning, Christopher R.; Boettner, Bethany; Pinchak, Nicolo; Calder, Catherine A.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Collective efficacy-the capacity of communities to exert social control toward the realization of their shared goals-is a foundational concept in the urban sociology and neighborhood effects literature. Traditionally, empirical studies of collective efficacy use large sample surveys to estimate collective efficacy of different neighborhoods within an urban setting. Such studies have demonstrated an association between collective efficacy and local variation in community violence, educational a...
